BoM亦已於06Z對14S發出最終報

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 2:56 pm WST on Friday 22 January 2021

Headline:
Heavy rain continuing over the east Pilbara and west Kimberley as tropical low approaches Eighty Mile Beach. No longer expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
None

Cancelled Zone
Bidyadanga to De Grey.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 19.5 degrees South 120.5 degrees East, estimated to be 35 kilometres north northwest of Wallal and 250 kilometres southwest of Broome.

Movement: south southeast at 20 kilometres per hour.

Tropical low (08U) is moving in a southerly direction towards the Eighty Mile Beach area, bringing heavy rain across the eastern Pilbara and southwestern Kimberley. The tropical low is no longer expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone prior to crossing the coast in the vicinity of Eighty Mile Beach tonight.

Hazards:
Heavy rainfall is occurring between Bidyadanga and De Grey and in areas inland from Eighty Mile Beach. It will extend further towards the southeast during Friday evening and heaviest falls will be ahead of the system.

Possible GALES this afternoon and evening are likely to be restricted to coastal waters and exposed coastal sites in the Eighty Mile Beach area.

Strong winds and heavy rainfall are expected to extend into the Interior of WA over the weekend.

A Severe Weather Warning is current for parts of the Kimberley, Pilbara and North Interior.

A Flood Watch is current for multiple districts.

Please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises of the following community alerts (effective as of 02:00pm AWST Friday):

ALL CLEAR: Bidyadanga to De Grey

Next Advice:
No further advices will be issued for this system.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

JTWC0230Z判定登陸澳洲

TPXS12 PGTW 220305

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (SW OF BROOME)

B. 22/0230Z

C. 20.21S

D. 120.53E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

JTWC發佈Final Warning

JTWC於18Z升格其為14S

14S FOURTEEN 210121 1800 18.8S 120.4E SHEM 35 1001

BoM下修預測巔峰，不再上望澳式C3，僅預測將於登陸前短暫達到澳式C2

JTWC發布TCFA

WTXS22 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201451ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 201500)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 122.7E TO 16.8S 119.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 121.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S 122.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY
265NM NNW OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 201200Z DIRECT ASCAT-A IMAGE DEPICTS 25-30KT WINDS
WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WHILE DEEPER CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH HAS HIGHER WINDS (35-40KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (31-32C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211500Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 99.3E.//
NNNN

JTWC將評級提升至Medium

92S INVEST 210120 0600 13.2S 122.7E SHEM 25 1004

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 104.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 122.7E, APPROXIMATELY
490 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 200455Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.
A 200611Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-
25KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15-20KT WINDS TO THE
NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.