JTWC0300Z發佈Final Warning

JTWC亦已降格TD,將繼續西行並逐步消亡

10S JOSHUA 210118 1800 19.4S 85.6E SHEM 30 1003

MFR判定於18Z已減弱為熱帶低壓

MFR開始對其發報

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE numéro 8 (JOSHUA)

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 75 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 100 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 994 hPa.
Position le 17 janvier à 16 heures locales: 18.3 Sud / 89.1 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 3490 km au secteur: EST
Distance de Mayotte: 4740 km au secteur: EST-SUD-EST
Déplacement: OUEST, à 15 km/h.

Informations sur le système :
1) JOSHUA est une tempête tropicale modérée venant du bassin australien et baptisée suivant la nomenclature de ce bassin.

2) Le système ne présente qu'un faible potentiel d'intensification à courte échéance.

3) Il n'est pas prévu qu'il concerne des terres émergées au cours des prochains 5 jours.

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,
Centre positionné le 18/01 à 16h locales, par 18.9 Sud / 85.8 Est.

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/01 à 16h locales, par 19.0 Sud / 81.6 Est.

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
Centre positionné le 20/01 à 16h locales, par 20.3 Sud / 77.2 Est.

DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE,
Centre positionné le 21/01 à 16h locales, par 22.1 Sud / 73.4 Est.

目前系統正在進入MFR的管治範圍，BoM對其發佈最後一報

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.


Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Joshua continues to move to the west southwest across the central Indian Ocean and is now out of the Australian region.


Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Joshua at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 18.1 degrees South, 89.9 degrees East , 990 kilometres southwest of Cocos Island .
Movement: west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour .

The cyclone will continue moving towards the west southwest and has now moved outside the Australian region. Further information on this system will be available from Meteo France La Reunion RSMC.

對流逐漸變得萎靡,BoM提升定強至10分鐘40KT,並預測已達顛峰

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1909 UTC 16/01/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Joshua
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.3S
Longitude: 91.4E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [242 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  17/0000: 17.6S  90.7E:     040 [080]:  040  [075]:  992
+12:  17/0600: 18.0S  90.0E:     055 [100]:  040  [075]:  992
+18:  17/1200: 18.3S  89.4E:     060 [115]:  040  [075]:  991
+24:  17/1800: 18.6S  88.7E:     070 [130]:  040  [075]:  991
+36:  18/0600: 19.1S  87.4E:     080 [150]:  035  [065]:  991
+48:  18/1800: 19.2S  85.8E:     100 [185]:  035  [065]:  994
+60:  19/0600: 19.4S  84.0E:     115 [210]:  030  [055]:  998
+72:  19/1800: 19.8S  81.7E:     125 [235]:  030  [055]:  998
+96:  20/1800:             :              :            :     
+120: 21/1800:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Following a day-time period of vigorous convection over the centre, since 11UTC
convection has dramatically weakened exposing the centre on IR imagery. The most
recent IR imagery is showing some renewed convection in southern quadrants with
curvature evident. Whilst the cloud structure is quite symmetrical under low
wind shear, without renewed convection the circulation may struggle as a TC and
intensity forecasts have been eased back somewhat.

None of the ascending scat passes [ASCAT/SCATSAT/HY2B] provided coverage over
the circulation, so intensity of 40kn based on Dvorak with some influence from
ADT/SATCON [-45kn]. Dvorak FT estimated at 2.5 [3h curved band 0.5 wrap] but CI
held at 3.0.  

The environment remains moderately favourable for the circulation, shear is low
easterly, with upper level outflow assisted by an upper trough to the south,
with deep moisture connected to the tropics. However SSTs are only marginal at
around 27C and there is limited low-level inflow from the north - factors that
may ultimately account for the lack of development.

Latest model guidance have eased back on intensification, and restrict the area
of gales largely to southern quadrants before weakening after about +48h.

A general west southwest track is expected to persist associated with a weak
mid-level ridge to the south.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0130 UTC.

命名Jousha

2021-01-16 12Z
- JOSHUA (07U) -
Position: 17.1S 92.0E
Intensity: 40kt 992hPa

短暫上望澳2