NHC 09Z發布最終報

000
WTNT44 KNHC 170831
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Sally Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Although the overall convective cloud and rain shield in satellite
and radar imagery continues to erode, Tropical Depression Sally is
still producing significant rainfall across east-central Alabama
and west-central and central Georgia.  Surface observations
and Doppler radar data indicate that Sally has weakened to a 25-kt
depression over southeastern Alabama.  Sally will continue to
weaken, and fairly rapidly at that, due to increasing friction and
loss of convection owing to very hostile westerly to southwesterly
vertical wind shear in excess of 40 kt. Sally will likely
degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by tonight or early
Friday, and merge with a frontal system over North Carolina by
Friday evening.

Sally is moving northeastward or 055/10 kt. A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion will continue for the next 36 hours or
so as the cyclone moves ahead of a broad deep-layer trough over the
northeastern United States.  The official track forecast is down
the middle of the tightly packed NHC model guidance suite, and lies
close to the previous advisory track and the consensus model HCCA.

This is the last NHC advisory on Sally.  Future information on this
system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Widespread flooding is expected from central Georgia through
southeastern Virginia.  Along the central Gulf Coast, most
widespread moderate to major river flooding from the historic
rainfall event will crest by the weekend, but rivers will remain
elevated well into next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 31.8N  85.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
12H  17/1800Z 32.8N  84.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
24H  18/0600Z 34.0N  81.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  18/1800Z 35.1N  78.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  19/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Stewart

颶風登陸
原文：

ZCZC MIATCUAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
500 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE SALLY MAKES
LANDFALL NEAR GULF SHORES ALABAMA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

At approximately 445 AM CDT...0945 UTC...the center of Hurricane
Sally's eye made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama, as a Category 2
hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h) and a
minimum central pressure of 965 mb (28.50 inches).
  
SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 87.7W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Blake

NNNN

拙劣道僅供參考的機器翻譯：

ZCZC MIATCUAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

颶風薩利熱帶氣旋更新
NWS美國國家颶風中心邁阿密佛羅里達州AL192020
500 AM CDT星期三2020年9月16日

... THE類別2颶風莎莉EYE中心不做
附近登陸格爾夫阿拉巴馬州...
...中北部灣沿岸的部分地區發生了巨災和威脅生命的洪水
...

大約CDT上午445點... 0945世界標準時間...颶風
薩利的視線中心在阿拉巴馬州墨西哥灣沿岸登陸，屬於第2類
颶風，最大持續風速為105英里/小時（165公里/小時），
最小中心壓力為965 mb（28.50英寸）。
  
CDT 500 AM ... 1000 UTC ...信息摘要
----------------------------------------------
位置... 30.3N 87.7W
關於0 MI ... 0 KM阿拉巴馬州
最大可支撐風窗... 105 MPH ... 165 KM / H
當前運動... NNE或020度以3 MPH ... 5 KM / H
最低中央壓力... 965 MB ... 28.50英寸

$$
Forecaster Stewart / Blake

NNNN

於近岸再度略微增強，風眼亦終於打開，09Z定強90節，中心氣壓965百帕

632
WTNT44 KNHC 160858
TCDAT4

Hurricane Sally Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

There has been little change in Sally's convective structure during
the past few hours as seen in radar and satellite data. The initial
intensity of 90 kt is based on previous reconnaissance SFMR surface
wind data of 88 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with average
Doppler radar values of 114 kt between 4500-5000 ft ASL, which
supports an equivalent surface wind speed of about 90 kt. The
reconnaissance aircraft has recently measured peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 110 kt, but those winds may not be making it
down to the surface based on earlier buoy wind reports underneath
the eyewall. Although the northern eyewall has moved onshore between
Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay, some slight strengthening is still
possible until the center of Sally's eye makes landfall later this
morning. Rapid weakening is forecast after the center moves inland,
and the system should become a remnant low in a couple of days.  
This is consistent with the latest model guidance.

Radar and aircraft center fixes indicate that Sally's motion is
north-northeastward, or 020/03 kt. No significant changes were
required to the previous track forecast. The latest NHC model
guidance continues to show Sally moving slowly north-northeastward
this morning, and then turn northeastward with a gradual increase in
forward speed by tonight. That motion should then continue for the
next day or so. As Sally approaches the mid-latitude westerlies at
higher latitudes, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the
east-northeast with some slight increase in forward speed until it
becomes a dissipating remnant low near the southeastern U.S. coast
in 2-3 days.  The official forecast is close to the latest corrected
dynamical model consensus, HCCA, prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Historic and catastrophic flooding is unfolding along and just
inland of the coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida, to Mobile
Bay, Alabama.  In addition, widespread moderate to major river
flooding is forecast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well
as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely across
inland portions Alabama into central Georgia. Widespread flash and
urban flooding is possible, as well as widespread minor to moderate
river flooding, across western South Carolina into western and
central North Carolina. Scattered flash and urban flooding is
possible, as well as scattered minor river flooding in southeast
Virginia.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the
coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including
Pensacola Bay and southern portions of Mobile Bay.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected this morning and then continue
into this afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area
along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida
Panhandle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 30.1N  87.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  16/1800Z 30.7N  87.2W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
24H  17/0600Z 31.5N  86.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
36H  17/1800Z 32.6N  84.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
48H  18/0600Z 33.5N  82.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
60H  18/1800Z 34.1N  79.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

中心已在近岸，04Z根據實測結果再次上調強度到80節。

086
WTNT64 KNHC 160359
TCUAT4

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
1100 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...11 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...SALLY STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

Data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Sally has
strengthened to 90 mph (150 km/h).

A sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (131
km/h) was recently reported in the Sally's northern eyewall by NOAA
buoy 42012, located about 50 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama.


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 87.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

相較昨晚略微減弱,Sally現位於美國南方海域,NHC認為將維持現在的強度登陸

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 29.1N  88.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  16/0000Z 29.6N  88.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  16/1200Z 30.2N  88.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  17/0000Z 31.0N  87.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
48H  17/1200Z 31.9N  86.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
60H  18/0000Z 32.6N  85.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
72H  18/1200Z 33.0N  83.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

於墨西哥灣中發展超乎預期,15Z強度已達80KT,觸陸前上望90節

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Sally Special Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally recently
measured peak flight-level winds of 88 kt at 700 mb and SFMR winds
of 78 kt north of the center, and an Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft just measured 79 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb.  These
data indicate that Sally has rapidly strengthened into a hurricane
with an intensity of around 80 kt. In addition, data from the KEVX
WSR-88D show an eye forming at around 16,000 ft altitude. This
special advisory has been issued to increase the initial and
forecast intensity. Additional adjustments to the intensity forecast
could be required this afternoon.  Only a slight adjustment was made
to the 12-h track forecast position based on the more northward and
eastward initial position.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move
onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's
northward turn near the central Gulf Coast.  Users should not focus
on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average
forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the
center.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight within the Hurricane
Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late
Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and
Alabama coastline. Tropical storm conditions are likely to begin
later today and this evening in these areas and preparations
should be rushed to completion.

4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread
minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just
inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban
flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the
week.  Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the
Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash
flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor
river flooding across west-central Florida through today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1630Z 28.7N  87.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  15/0000Z 28.8N  87.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  15/1200Z 29.2N  88.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  16/0000Z 29.8N  89.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  16/1200Z 30.8N  88.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
60H  17/0000Z 31.8N  87.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
72H  17/1200Z 32.6N  86.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
96H  18/1200Z 33.1N  84.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

NHC18Z升格TS,命名Sally

428
WTNT84 KNHC 121803
TCVAT4

SALLY WATCH/WARNING INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL192020
203 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2020

.TROPICAL STORM SALLY

CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

FLZ108-112-114-115-130215-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1019.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
203 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2020 /103 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2020/

$$

ATTN...WFO...TAE...