FNMOC 1240z撤編，曇花一現，一度登上TS。

國家颶風中心：熱帶性低氣壓
原文：

Tropical Depression Fausto Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112020
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Deep convection continues to decrease near Fausto, with only a small
area remaining near and south of the center.  Satellite estimates
are dropping and support making Fausto a 30-kt tropical depression
on this advisory, which also matches the 25-30 kt ASCAT data from
earlier.  The cyclone is rapidly moving over cold water, and should
cease producing deep convection overnight.  Thus further weakening
is likely, and remnant low status is expected on Monday, with a slow
decay over cold waters thereafter as shown in the global models.

Fausto is moving northwestward at around 15 kt along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The storm should turn
westward tomorrow and south-of-west on Tuesday due to the
orientation of the lower- to middle-level ridge. The official
forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and is not far
from the eastern Pacific model consensus aid, TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 23.1N 122.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  17/1200Z 24.1N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  18/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  18/1200Z 24.5N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  19/0000Z 24.0N 131.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  19/1200Z 23.0N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

機器翻譯(僅供完全不懂原文用戶參考，實際以原文為主~)：

熱帶低壓浮士德論壇討論5
新創建國家颶風中心邁阿密FL EP112020
美國太平洋夏令時間（PMD）下午800點2020年8月16日

福斯托附近的深對流持續減少，只有一小部分
中心附近和南部剩餘的區域。衛星估算
正在下降並支持使福斯托成為30海裡的熱帶低壓
在此諮詢中，還匹配了來自25-30kt的ASCAT數據
較早。旋風在冷水上迅速移動，應
在一夜之間停止產生深對流。從而進一步削弱
可能會出現這種情況，預計週一會出現較低的殘餘狀態，
如全局模型所示，此後在冷水中衰減。

福斯托（Fausto）沿著該海峽向北移動約15 kt
半山脊的西南邊緣。風暴應該轉了
由於天氣原因，明天向西和星期二西南
下到中層山脊的方向。官方
預測基本上是前一個的更新，並且相距不遠
來自東太平洋示範共識援助TVCE。


預測位置和最大風

INIT 17 / 0300Z 23.1N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17 / 1200Z 24.1N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH ...
24H 18 / 0000Z 24.6N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH ...
36H 18 / 1200Z 24.5N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH ...
48H 19 / 0000Z 24.0N 131.9W 20 KT 25 MPH ...
60H 19 / 1200Z 23.0N 134.0W 20 KT 25 MPH ...
72H 20 / 0000Z ...已分發

$$
預報員布雷克

12Z 命名11E-Fausto

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112020
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020

The satellite presentation of the cyclone consists mainly of a
circular area of deep convection with little evidence of banding
features.  Scatterometer data suggest that the system is just below
tropical storm strength.   Some slight strengthening could occur
today while the cyclone is over marginally warm waters.  However,
in 1-2 days, SSTs should drop below 24 deg C, and this should cause
the system to weaken into a remnant low in 2-3 days.  The official
intensity forecast is close to the corrected consensus model
prediction.

Although there is some scatter in the center fixes, the depression
is estimated to be moving north-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. Over
the next day or two, the cyclone is expected to move northwestward
to west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge.  Later in the forecast period, the weakening
system will likely turn westward or a little south of westward as
it moves in the lower-level flow.  The official track forecast is a
little to the left of the previous NHC forecast and about in the
middle of the track guidance suite.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 19.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  16/1800Z 21.4N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  17/0600Z 23.3N 123.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  17/1800Z 24.4N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  18/0600Z 24.7N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
60H  18/1800Z 24.3N 130.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  19/0600Z 23.8N 132.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

03Z升格11E，不看好命名。

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160232
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112020
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020

The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring well offshore
the Baja California peninsula has become better defined during the
past several hours, and it appears to have a well-defined center.  
Since deep convection has persisted near the center, it now meets
the criteria of a tropical depression.  The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt based on 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB.

The depression is already nearing cooler waters, and it is expected
to cross the 26 C isotherm in about 12 hours.  These cooler waters
combined with a drier environment should prevent strengthening in
the short term, and cause the cyclone to become a remnant low in 36
to 48 hours, or maybe even sooner than that.  The global models
show the remnant low opening into a trough in 3 to 4 days.

The initial motion is quite uncertain given that the system has only
recently become well defined, but my best guess is
north-northwestward at 10 kt.   A strong mid-level ridge situated
over the southwestern U.S. should cause the cyclone to turn
northwestward soon and continue in that direction for the next
couple of days.  After that time, when the system is likely a
shallow remnant low, a turn to the west is predicted as it is
is steered by the low-level flow.  The track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 18.4N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  16/1200Z 20.3N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  17/0000Z 22.5N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  17/1200Z 24.0N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  18/0000Z 24.9N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  18/1200Z 25.3N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  19/0000Z 24.7N 131.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NHC展望提升至80%

2. Concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an
area of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system has
slowly become better organized since yesterday and environmental
conditions appear favorable for further development today and
tomorrow. A tropical depression is likely to form while the system
moves slowly north-northwestward or northward during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.