WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041451ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 66.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 66.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.2S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.2S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.7S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.1S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.7S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.0S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 66.8E.
04FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND TO THE NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A DIRECT 041740Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED LLCC WITH A SWATH OF 35 KT WIND BARBS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EAST. THIS IMAGE
PLACES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY,
WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T2.0-2.5 (30-35 KTS) BY PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT. LOCATED IN AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING ROBUST
DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 45 KTS BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES
BEGIN TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. TC 13S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ACT
AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER THAT, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL TURN
TC 13S TO A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. CONCURRENTLY,
DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN, WITH DISSIPATION OVER WATER EXPECTED BY TAU 96. THE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24.
HOWEVER, DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 24.
SPECIFICALLY, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A PASSING TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS A WEAKER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION, CAUSING
IMPACTS TO THE STR STEERING TC 13S IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DUE
TO THESE DIFFERENCES, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 041500).//
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MFR亦判定同一時間升格為熱帶低壓第8號。
ZCZC 236
WTIO30 FMEE 041833 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/8/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8
2.A POSITION 2020/02/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 66.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 370
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/05 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/05 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/06 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/06 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/02/07 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/02/07 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/08 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0
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