WTPS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260321ZDEC2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 13.2S 176.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 176.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.4S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.2S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.1S 176.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.6S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.2S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.1S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.4S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 176.2E.
26DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. SPIRAL BANDING IN A 260525Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY PROVIDES FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ALIGNS WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T2.5 (35 KTS). EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, A POCKET OF LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE. TC 04P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER).
THE NER WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. AS THE NER REORIENTS, TC 04P WILL TURN EASTWARD, JUST SOUTH
OF NADI, FIJI. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO 65 KTS AS IT PASSES NADI. AFTERWARD, STRONG VWS
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AS TC 04P MOVES EASTWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH ARE POLEWARD OF THE OTHER
MEMBERS, THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALIGNS WITH THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, NAVGEM BECOMES A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS AS IT ACCELERATES FASTER THAN THE OTHER MEMBERS ONCE THE
SYSTEM TURNS EASTWARD. BASED ON FAIR OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 260300).//
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