Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019
800 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2019
Satellite images indicate that the well-defined low pressure system
that NHC has been monitoring well south of the Baja California
peninsula has now developed sufficently organized deep convection
to be classified a tropical depression, the twentieth one of the
2019 eastern North Pacific season. The depression is producing two
areas of thunderstorms, one near and east of the low-level center,
and the other in bands over the northeastern quadrant. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt, based on a 2.0 Dvorak classification
from SAB.
The depression has a day or two to strengthen while it remains over
warm waters, in relatively moist conditions, and in a low wind
shear environment. In about 48 hours, however, a pronounced
increase in southwesterly shear and progressively drier air should
end the opportunity for strengthening and induce a weakening trend.
The cyclone will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days and
dissipate shortly thereafter when it moves into an extremely
hostile upper-level environment. The NHC intensity forecast lies
near the high end of the guidance and is in best agreement with the
HCCA consensus model.
The depression is moving slowly north-northwestward in the flow on
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. A northwestward
to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster pace should
occur during the next couple of days as the ridge strengthens and
remains in place. After that time, a faster north-northeastward
motion is expected as a large mid- to upper-level low digs to the
west of the Baja California peninsula. Once the system becomes
weak and shallow, a turn back to the left seems likely in the
low-level flow. The NHC track forecast follows the TVCE and HCCA
consensus models and brings the remnants of the depression near the
southern Baja California peninsula in about 4 days.
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