(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.1N 135.3E, APPROXIMATELY 837 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 150435Z ATMS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING BROAD LLCC WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LUZON WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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