21日21Z發出最終報。

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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012019
2100 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.  INTERESTS IN
BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  68.3W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  70 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  68.3W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N  68.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.2N  67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.7N  62.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N  68.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER PASCH


NNNN

FWC-N于20/1500Z发布TCFA

WTNT21 KNGU 201500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.6N 68.7W TO 31.8N 68.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 201200Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION HAS YET FORMED. THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING
NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE, LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA,
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LATER TODAY,
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SHORT-LIVED SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211500Z.//

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NHC展望则提升至70%/70%

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda are
showing signs of organization.  Although recent satellite wind data
suggest that the system currently lacks a well-defined center of
circulation, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for the formation of a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone
later today or tonight.  Conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development by late Tuesday, and the
disturbance is expected to merge with a cold front on Wednesday.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route
to investigate the disturbance.  Interests in Bermuda should
monitor the progress of this system.  The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brown

NHC展望提升至60%/60%，预计实测飞机将在今日16Z起飞

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that a trough of low pressure
has developed within a large area of cloudiness and disorganized
showers several hundred miles to the southwest of Bermuda. A low
pressure system is expected to form within this area of disturbed
weather later today, and possibly develop into a short-lived
subtropical or tropical cyclone by tonight or Tuesday while moving
northward or northeastward. By Wednesday, however, conditions are
forecast to become unfavorable for further development, and the
system should become rapidly absorbed by a cold front. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.  Interests in Bermuda
should monitor the progress of this system.  The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 AM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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995
NOUS42 KNHC 191730
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT SUN 19 MAY 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z MAY 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-001 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (SW OF BERMUDA)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
       A. 20/2030Z
       B. AFXXX 0101A CYCLONE
       C. 20/1600Z    (TAKEOFF TIME CORRECTED)
       D. 28.0N 68.0W
       E. 20/2000Z TO 20/2330Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION AT 21/1730Z
       NEAR 30.5N 67.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
    3. REMARKS:  THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD.  DAILY TCPODS WILL
       CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
       MISSIONS ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM

NNNN

NHC展望提升至50%/50%，并继续表示在有必要时会于周一下午派出飞机进行实测

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of Bermuda by Monday. This system could develop into a
short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone late tomorrow or
Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward. By Wednesday,
however, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further
development, and the system should become rapidly absorbed by a
cold front.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if
necessary. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
system. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by
Monday 2 AM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Avila