JTWC16/1830Z撤評,FNMOC撤編,從昨天JMA的反應及多個主流數值預報看來這個系統(91W到92W再到93W)的路,這次有可能是個盡頭了

ABPW10 PGTW 161830

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 146.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

补充：JTWC 16/02Z就已评级Low

ABPW10 PGTW 160200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/160200Z-160600ZMAY2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.3N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 82 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED, SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME FLARING CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE EAST. A 152029Z F-17 SSMIS 37 GHZ AND 152317Z MHS
METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LLC. A 152319Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS TO THE EAST OF THE LLC
SHOWS AN AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS. 93W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY WARM
(28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE WEAK CIRCULATION DISSIPATING AS IT
TRACKS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN

---

JMA则于昨日12Z降格LPA，今日12Z判定消散

JTWC評級Low

ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZMAY2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.3N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 82 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED,
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME FLARING
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. A 152343Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
SWATH OF 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE LLC. 93W IS IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING OFFSET BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE BEING ABSORBED INTO A
TRANSITING BAROCLINIC LOW IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE
OF 93W MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

  基本資料  

編號　　　　：93 W

擾動編號日期：2019 年 05 月 15 日 02 時

撤編日期　　：2019 年 05 月 00 日 00 時

93W INVEST 190514 1800 10.0N 150.0E WPAC 15 1006

JTWC於12/1400Z取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 153.7E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JTWC11/0600Z降評Low，原先剛編擾時系集模式皆有反應的GFS也不再支持發展

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.1N 158.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 158.5E, APPROXIMATELY 30
NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE MASS OF ROTATING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 102322Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK,
ELONGATED LLC AROUND THE ISLAND OF POHNPEI WITH A LINE  OF TROUGHING
EXTENDING NORTHEAST BELOW THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS BELOW A POINT SOURCE, ENABLING STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR IS IN THE MODERATE-HIGH
RANGE (15-25KTS) BUT DECREASES TO THE NORTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (29-31C) IN THIS REGION OF THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK TOWARDS THE MARIANAS, WITH MOST BACKING OFF FROM PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES OF DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. THERE IS A GREATER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATE TAU, AS THE UKMO SHOWS THE SYSTEM RECURVING
EARLY, PRIOR TO REACHING THE MARIANAS ISLANDS, AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
DISSIPATING 92W ENTIRELY AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.