JTWC已於26/0930Z取消評級。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S 94.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JTWC 13Z評級提升至Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.4S 93.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 94.2E, APPROXIMATELY 171
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 241128Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
SHOWS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. 92S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE, AND IS LYING IN A BELT OF LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH MUCH HIGHER VWS VALUES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD WITH MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, THEY
DISAGREE ON WHETHER 92S WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
POSSIBLY MERGING WITH 25S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

A tropical low was located near 9.7S 94.6E at midday WST, which is about 370 km northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. It is forecast to slow moving or drift south over the next few days. The system has a Low risk of developing in the short term, increasing to Moderate on Thursday, when there is a chance it is just west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. The proximity of the trough and tropical low is likely to see fresh to strong winds and squally showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy falls continue at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday: Low
Wednesda: Low
Thursday: Moderate