(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2S 64.9E, IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0S
63.0E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010538Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTER. A 010539Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 15 KNOT WINDS LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW SEVERAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM�㷧 TRACK AND
INTENSITY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 96S. THE UKMET MODEL
INDICATES AN EAST AND THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH 97S BEING ABSORBED INTO 96S. NAVGEM AND GFS SHOW
THE SYSTEM AS QUASISTATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE INTENSIFYING
AND MOVING EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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