與93P一同在JTWC1317Z一報中遭撤消評級

ABPW10 PGTW 131700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/131700Z-140600ZFEB2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131351ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 131200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.0S 165.0E, APPROXIMATELY 292 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 131500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.4S 178.1E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 177.3W, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JTWC於13/01Z降評為Low。
全球模式認為92P未來可能被併入至15P Oma的環流中，已不太看好未來的發展。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.7S 178.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4S 178.1E, APPROXIMATELY
400 NM SOUTH OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
DIMINISHING CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTION. INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN
AN OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE,
LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ISOTHERM.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO 15P (OMA) IN THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.