FMS判定09/18Z降格為熱帶低壓，近中心最大風速降為30kts。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 091936 UTC.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEIL, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.6S 174.9W AT 091800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 AND GOES EIR
AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

LLCC EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500 HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC LESS THAN 75
NAUTICAL MILES FROM STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT YIELDS DT=2.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD07F TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOW.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 23.8S 173.8W MOV SSE AT 17 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 27.3S 172.1W MOV SSE AT 18 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE



THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EX-TC NEIL.