TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTRE 999HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 9.8S 171.1E
AT 312100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPEHRAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD04F IS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND REMAINS
PERSISTENT WITH GOOD ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IN A LOW-MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
EASTWARDS AND THEN IN A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.