JTWC 10/21Z評級Low。

  (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8S
156.0E, APPROXIMATELY 604 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW
GUINEA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL
092324Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY-ORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION(LLC) WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 95P WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.