(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.4S 76.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1S 76.2E, APPROXIMATELY 235
NM NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 020123Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION WITH A SINGLE CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC
FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VWS (20-25KTS) OVER THE LLCC BUT
WITH LOWER VALUES ENCROACHING FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER, VWS IS OFFSET
BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN
FAVORABLE IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, BETWEEN 28-29 CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A MEANDERING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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