JTWC 00Z已發FW


JMA 12Z依舊維持TD並發布W，但很快地即將併入鋒面

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 36.0N 154.0E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NNE 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

這個系統消消長長5天了，今天結構好點，雖然緯度高，但偶爾日本突如其來的升格或為其命名，情況也發生過，就看他是不是準康芮了

JTWC 06Z升格熱帶低壓29W，持續北上。

JMA 發布TD【W】，逐漸北上。

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 27.8N 152.3E MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NW 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JTWC 12Z發佈TCFA

JMA 04Z再度升格TD


JTWC 06Z提升評級至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 161.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 157.5E, APPROXIMATELY
526 NM WEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 250248Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT BROAD BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. A 241105Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A
MORE SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS) REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN THE GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON 93W'S POLEWARD TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY ON TIME FRAMES AND
INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

JTWC 01Z評級Low

      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.0N 163.8E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232306Z 89GHZ GMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION WITH TURNINGIN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MOST RECENT 231018Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALED 15- TO 20-KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT WITH TROUGHING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE SHEAR (15-
25KTS) AND MODERATE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE VICINITY ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 29-31 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT MOVING NORTH WITH SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NEXT 36-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.