(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.7N 108.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.5E, APPROXIMATELY
190 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULL EXPOSED AND SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST,
OVER LAND. A 170205Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST EAST OF VIETNAM, WITH THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER LAND. A 170206Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 5-10 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 15-20 KNOT
WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER LAND IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LITTLE TO NO CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.9N 107.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 108.4E, APPROXIMATELY
82 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BACH LONG VI, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES
EXPOSED OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 142242Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THE CONVECTION IS BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE SOUTH AND
WESTERN PERIPHERIES AND HAS BEGUN WRAPPING INTO LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS)
UNDER STRAIGHT-LINE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30C). THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME AND
ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH THE SYSTEM'S PROXIMITY TO HAINAN ISLAND WILL HINDER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WITH MODELS STILL DEPICTING MINIMAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF
TONKIN REGION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.9N 107.1E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BACH LONG VI,
VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA
OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH WEAK BANDING OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. A RECENT 132245Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE EMPHASIZES
THAT THERE IS LIMITED CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
SURROUNDING THE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-20 KNOTS), WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30C). THIS ENVIRONMENT LENDS SUPPORT TO THE MODELS
DEPICTING MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF TONKIN FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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