(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.2N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 012148Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
OUTFLOW ALOFT. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHERLY. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE WITH THE GENERAL TRAJECTORY OF THE DISTURBANCE,
TRACKING NORTHERLY, BUT DISAGREE ON TIME AND INTENSITY MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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