(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1N 154.6E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N
153.9E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300515Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW
AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW THAT 98P IS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS) IN THE REGION ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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