JTWC 評級LOW

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.7S 162.6W, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 170849Z METOP-A
ASCAT IMAGE SHOW THAT 92P IS CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD REGION OF ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL TURNING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS) AND NEUTRAL DIVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF 92P. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW
SOME AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEAR
TERM, BEFORE POSSIBLY HEADING SOUTHEAST AND REACHING TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.