(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.6S
171.1W, HAS BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.8S 175.7W, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 300345Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF 95P IS
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) BUT HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) AND WILL
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS PREDICT POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT AROUND TAU 48 INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE EAST IN THE NEAR TERM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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