正在通過巴士海峽
LLCC依然明顯
但對流相當稀疏..

CWB已降為普通低壓
目前來到呂宋島西方海域
持續偏北進行，未來一兩天通過巴士海峽

中心附近只剩下一小塊對流

CMA 00Z編號TD01

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 180300
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 01 INITIAL TIME 180300 UTC
00HR 15.5N 117.0E 1006HPA 13M/S
MOVE N 10KM/H
P+12HR 16.4N 117.2E 1006HPA 13M/S
P+24HR 17.7N 117.3E 1007HPA 12M/S=
NNNN

裸的真徹底XD
記錄一下囉~

中心裸了，但JTWC重評Low，JMA持續維持TD。

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 14N 116E ALMOST STATIONARY.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TD 02W) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 14.9N 116.9E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION FLARED
OVERNIGHT, BUT IS NOW BEGINNING TO WANE WITH MOSTLY MID-LEVEL
CONVECTION NOW MOVING OFF TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, A 171352Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A COMPACT CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS
REMAINS FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTEROMETRY, CURVED
BANDING IN A 171350Z AMSU 89 GZ IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH TO THE NORTH AND DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL AIR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. GLOBAL MODELS
FURTHER DISSIPATE THESE REMNANTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

這風場實在太過狹小了，不過現在20KT實在很合理（可能12小時之前略有較強的風速，推估有25KT上下）。



只是現在因為南海中北部與西部地區空氣實在太乾，又剛好處在副高中心帶，流出雖然可以四散（主要高空風為弱東風），卻倍受壓制，無法持續產生對流，現在對流已開始消散。