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本帖最後由 herny2000 於 2011-3-27 19:45 編輯 老J預測下一報減弱為TS了.......風光的人(風)生,閉幕了 (:'( ) |
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TXPS41 PHFO 260521 TCSSP1 SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0525 UTC SAT MAR 26 2011 A. Tropical cyclone Bune. B. 26/0432Z. C. 23.0°S. D. 179.9°W. E. Goes-11/mtsat. F. T4.0/4.0/s0.0/24 hrs. G. Ir/eir/vis. H. Remarks: 1.2 wrap on log 10 results in DT of 4.0. MET and PT agree. Final T based on DT. I. Addl positions nil. $$ Ryshko. |
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減弱 C1下限 |
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WTPS31 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (BUNE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 22.9S 179.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 179.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 23.4S 179.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 23.9S 179.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 25.0S 179.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 26.5S 179.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 30.4S 176.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 34.8S 175.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 179.6W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (BUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 251757Z SSMIS 37H GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TC 19P HAS SLOWLY TURNED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT HAS BUILT IN TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS FROM A MID- LATITUDE TROUGH. AROUND TAU 48, TC BUNE SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 72 IT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL TAU 48, WHEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z.// |
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 25/0744 UTC 2011 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE CATEGORY 3 CENTRE 970HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4S 179.2W AT 250600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS BY 260600 UTC. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT. ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM BUT APPEARS GOOD ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. BUNE HAS ADOPTED A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST TRACK IN THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH LG SURROUND, GIVING DT=4.5, MET=4.5 AND PT=4.0. THEREFORE T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM WHILE ADOPTING A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 22.9S 179.5W MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 23.2S 179.9W MOV SW AT 3 KT WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 23.7S 179.2E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 24.4S 178.8E MOV SW AT 4 KT WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BUNE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 251400 UTC. |
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南太平洋热带气旋BUNE的中心3月25日14时位于斐济苏瓦（SUVA）南偏东方大约530公里的洋面上，就是南纬22.4度、西经179.2度，中心附近最大风力12级（33米/秒），中心最低气压970百帕。 预计，BUNE将以每小时5-10公里的速度向西南方向移动，强度将继续加强。 
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