(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.5N 98.6E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.7N 91.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 97.8E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH OF
YANGON, MYANMAR. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 041210Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
DISTINCT BANDING. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS), AND AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE
TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH
INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION LIKELY WITHIN 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING
LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.2N
88.8E, APPROXIMATELY 980 NM SOUTHWEST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021235Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION
AND DISTINCT BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM. ALTHOUGH THE DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, IT IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH
(20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE DISTURBANCE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND MERGING WITH
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE (INVEST 91B) WITH CONSOLIDATION POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
組圖打開中，請稍候......