THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO
BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY
WITHIN 12 HOURS, LET ALONE 48 HOURS AT BEST.
JTWC認為最快48小時有機會重新發展。
發表於 2016-11-12 18:07
WTPN21 PGTW 100530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 170.7E TO 11.9N 159.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 170.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 171.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 170.0E, APPROXIMATELY
185NM NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WELL DEFINED CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A MHS
100257Z MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN
FROM THE WESTERN SIDE. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY REVEALS A MORE
PRONOUNCED WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KTS OF WIND. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS) AND WEAK DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE LIMITED DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110530Z.
//
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