1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 030500). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 85.3E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 85.1E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF
VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH. A 040104Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROADENING LLCC. DESPITE BEING IN AN AREA
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS, THE DISTURBANCE IS ENCOUNTERING
HIGH (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO AN AREA
OF HIGHER VWS, WITH NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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