DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 21.10.2016
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE
BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED
AT 0600 UTC OF 21 OCTOBER, 2016 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 21 OCTOBER,
2016.
THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300
UTC OF TODAY, THE 21ST OCTOBER, 2016 NEAR LATITUDE 13.50N AND
LONGITUDE 88.50E, ABOUT 500 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR
(43333) AND 900 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YANGOON (48097). THE SYSTEM
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND REACH NEAR MYANMAR
COAST ON 23RD OCTOBER. THE SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND INTO A CYCLONIC
STORM DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOW SHEAR
PATTERN. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN
LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LIE OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN 11.0N TO 16.0N AND
LONGITUDE 83.0E TO 89.0E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT)
IS ABOUT -750 C. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SHOW CONTINUOUS
ORGANISATION AND CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE COMING TOGETHER.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE THREE CLUSTERS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND
SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS ABOUT 1002 HPA.
THE SHIP LOCATED NERA 13.20 N AND89.50 E REPORTED MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE (MSLP) OF 1004.6 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND (MSW) OF
210/27 KNOTS. A BUOY LOCATED NEAR 14.00N & 87.00 E REPORTED MSLP
of 1004.7HPA AND MSW OF 350/25 KNOTS. ANOTHER BUOY LOCATED NEAR
16.50N AND 88.00 E REPORTED MSLP OF 1007.0 HPA AND MSW OF 030/10
KNOTS.
REMARKS:
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 29-30\u02daC, OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY
IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2. IT INCREASES TOWARDS NORTHEAST SECTOR. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE HAS INCREASED DURING
PAST 24 HOURS AND IS ABOUT 15 X 10-5 SECOND-1. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE AREA DURING PAST 24 HOURS
AND IS ABOUT 20 X10-5 SECOND-1. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY
IS ABOUT 100X10-6 SECOND-1. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL
WIND IS MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE
AND IT DECREASES TOWARDS NORTHEAST BECOMING 5-10 KNOTS NEAR ARAKAN
COAST. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 19.00\u02daN. THE
MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) LIES IN PHASE-7 AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO PHASE 8 DURING NEXT 3 DAYS.THE AMPLITUDE IS VERY LESS.
THOUGH PAHSE 7 OF MJO IS NOT FAVOURABLE, THE VERY LESS AMPLITUDE
IN THIS PHASE WILL NOT INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AS IT IS BEING
STEERED BY THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS AND THE SYSTEM IS
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM AND MOVEMENT TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST DURING NEXT 72 HOURS. THE
GENESIS POTENTIAL PARAMETERS ALSO SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. CONSIDERING ABOVE SYNOPTIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
AS WELL AS NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS GUIDANCE, THE
DEPRESSION WOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A
DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 21 OCTOBER 2016.
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