(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.1S
103.3E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE WITHIN A LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION. A 102345Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PARTIAL IMAGE
SHOWS A BROAD LLCC WITH POCKETS OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF IT.
THE SYSTEM IS SITTING IN AN AREA OF MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER; IT IS CURRENTLY BEING IMPACTED BY MODERATE TO
HIGH (20-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE MIXED
WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD INTO AN AREA
OF LOWER VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Potential Cyclones:
There are currently no significant lows in the Western Region.
A tropical low is forecast to form to the north of the region either late today or on Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday this low should move south and may be located near 9-12S, somewhere between 100E and 110E. There is a Low chance that this system could reach tropical cyclone intensity during Thursday.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday: Low
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