原形畢露，中心整個裸了:L
不過NHC仍看好24小時之後增強為TS。

000
WTNT43 KNHC 291444
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft did not find many
changes to the depression this morning, with maximum believable SFMR
winds of about 30 kt.  This value will remain the initial wind
speed.  Satellite images indicate the cyclone continues to struggle
to produce convection, likely due to moderate shear and plentiful
dry air aloft.  The environment is forecast to become more conducive
over the next 24 hours, with a slight decrease in shear and
an increase in moisture. Thus, the latest forecast still shows the
depression becoming a tropical storm by Tuesday.  Most of the
guidance suggests the cyclone will strengthen in a couple of days
while it moves northeastward away from the Carolinas as it moves
right along the Gulf Stream.  Since the previous forecast is almost
identical to the new model consensus, no significant changes are
made to the final NHC intensity forecast.

The depression is moving northwestward, now at about 6 kt.  The
cyclone should slow down and begin to turn to the north as it
reaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina
coast.  In 36 to 48 hours, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving
through the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the
ridge and cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the
westerlies.  The guidance is in fairly good agreement, and
the latest NHC track forecast is close to the previous one.  The
cyclone should be absorbed within a large extratropical cyclone in
about 4 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 33.2N  73.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  30/0000Z 33.8N  74.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  30/1200Z 34.4N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  31/0000Z 35.1N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  31/1200Z 36.2N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  01/1200Z 39.0N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

第二次實測稍早結束，第三次實測已經啟動

t02436 發表於 2016-8-28 22:07
NHC提升展望至40%，飛機實測視情況或將在稍晚啟動。

結果NHC馬上發布Special Outlook，直接升格08L:L

2. Updated: Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure
west-southwest of Bermuda has become a tropical depression, and
advisories on Tropical Depression Eight will be initiated at 11 AM
EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent

NHC提升展望至40%，飛機實測視情況或將在稍晚啟動。

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few
hours in association with an area of low pressure located about 250
miles west of Bermuda.  While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive, some additional development of this system is
possible during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.  As the low approaches the coast of North Carolina
by mid-week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development.  For additional information on this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.   An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

系統西側最近幾個小時狂炸對流，中心雖然還有點裸，但有機會拚個08L