留個記錄

中心已經進入北大西洋，NHC 15Z評價55節，但判定為後熱帶氣旋。

000
WTNT44 KNHC 031457
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016

Satellite imagery indicates that Hermine has become a post-tropical
cyclone, with the coldest convective tops now located more than 200
n mi northeast of the exposed center.  Despite this change in
structure, surface data from the Outer Banks indicate that some
strong winds persist near the center, and the initial intensity is
set to 55 kt for this advisory.  During the next 48 to 72 hours,
Hermine will interact with a strong mid-latitude shortwave trough
and all of the global models show the system re-intensifying during
that time and a redevelopment of a stronger inner core, albeit one
situated underneath an upper-level low. Regardless of its final
structure, Hermine is expected to remain a dangerous cyclone through
the 5 day period.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 060/14.  Hermine
should continue moving northeastward in deep-layer southwesterly
flow through 24 hours and then meander generally northward from 36
to 72 hours while the cyclone deepens beneath the upper-level low.
Late in the period, the guidance is in generally good agreement
showing a steadier motion toward the northeast, although there is
significant spread.  The new NHC forecast is generally close to the
previous one and is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF through 3
days, and then favors the guidance that is a bit faster and farther
north at days 4 and 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will
result in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the
mid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the
holiday weekend.

2. Although Hermine has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will
continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as
long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.

3. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding
Graphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical
cyclone.  The wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by
the P-surge model and as a result, recent Flooding Graphics have
understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas northward.  NHC
will be discontinuing runs of the P-surge model for Hermine with
this advisory.  The NWS is attempting to substitute the GFS ensemble
system for P-surge for the next issuance of the Potential Storm
Surge Flooding Graphic, to provide a more realistic depiction of the
threat.  If this effort is unsuccessful, issuance of the Potential
Storm Surge Flooding Graphic for Hermine will also be discontinued.

4. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic does account for
the current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately
identifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge.
This graphic will continue to be produced for Hermine.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 36.1N  75.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H  04/0000Z 37.1N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H  04/1200Z 37.9N  71.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H  05/0000Z 38.4N  71.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  05/1200Z 38.7N  71.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H  06/1200Z 39.5N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H  07/1200Z 40.4N  70.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  08/1200Z 41.0N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brennan

目前在南卡羅來納州橫掃美東~

補充NHC登陸消息

ZCZC MIATCUAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
140 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016

...HERMINE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST JUST EAST OF
ST. MARKS...

Data from the NOAA WSR-88D Doppler radar indicate that the center
of Hurricane Hermine made landfall around 130 am EDT...0530 UTC...
along the Florida Big Bend coast just east of St. Marks, Florida,
near the Wakulla-Jefferson County line, with maximum sustained winds
of near 80 mph and a central pressure of 982 mb...29.00 inches.


SUMMARY OF 130 AM EDT...0530 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 84.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM ESE OF ST. MARKS FLORIDA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Avila/Stewart


NNNN

登陸前雷達動畫，底層眼相當明顯


美東沿岸皮要繃緊了...

〝第13次〞飛機實測進行中....




稍早NHC根據實測結果於17Z發出第17報正報

ZCZC MIATCUAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1155 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GULF AND
EAST COASTS OF FLORIDA...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that tropical-storm-force winds extend significantly farther to the
east of the center of Hermine than they did earlier.  This requires
the extension of the Tropical Storm Warning southward along the Gulf
coast of Florida to Englewood, and along the Florida east coast
southward to the Flagler/Volusia County line.

A special advisory will be issued within the next 30 minutes to
update the forecast and warnings for Hermine.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch


NNNN

評價上升到60節，預測00Z上C1，24小時之內登陸。

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  85.6W AT 01/1700Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 160SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  30SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  85.6W AT 01/1700Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  86.2W

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1700Z 27.8N  85.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  02/0000Z 29.0N  84.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  02/1200Z 31.1N  82.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
36H  03/0000Z 33.1N  80.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
48H  03/1200Z 35.2N  76.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  04/1200Z 38.0N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  05/1200Z 38.5N  71.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  06/1200Z 39.5N  70.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

風眼看來要被捲出來了






國家颶風中心局長Rick Knabb也罕見的將在稍後於Twitter對Hermine進行直播。

NHC director Rick Knabb will provide a live update on Hermine at 2:30pm EDT. Watch it live here or on Twitter.

結論:有富爸爸真好:L