法國氣象局發佈了特強熱帶氣旋Fantala的完整路徑。

http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclone/saison-en-cours/dirre/FANTALA

Suomi NPP截取4月26日坦尚尼亞以東的前Fantala。


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 016-04-26_1030Z.jpg

Fantala 路徑詭異 . 連續侵襲塞席爾群島之一-法夸爾1天前終於出現了當地影像 , 居民形容就像世界末日

同一個衛星
同一個海域
同一個氣旋
同一個時間
上週一、這週一

Terra截取4月24日正三度逼近法夸爾群島的「前」Fantala。


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 016-04-24_0655Z.jpg

Fantala的巔峰 . 印度洋唯一可能真有155kts的潛力

MFR 00Z直接降格TD判死，並發布最終報。

WTIO30 FMEE 240034

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 52/8/20152016

1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  8  (EX-FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/24 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1 S / 53.8 E

(ELEVEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL

EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/W 2.5/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE:  SE: 110 SW: 110 NW:









7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/24 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

24H: 2016/04/25 00 UTC: 9.7 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

36H: 2016/04/25 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

48H: 2016/04/26 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

60H: 2016/04/26 12 UTC: 8.4 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=1.5, CI=2.0



OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO

DECREASE.

THE ASCAT DATA AT 23/18.20Z CONFIRM THIS ANALYSIS AND THE SYSTEM HAS

BEEN DOWNGRADE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.



EX-FANTALA IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD, NORTH OF THE

LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE HIGH PRESSURE BELT, AND IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE

ON THIS TRACK UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ACCORDING TO THE UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONNEMENTAL CONDITIONS, MAINLY THE

SURROUDING DRY AIR, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE.



THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED BY THE RSCM LA REUNION FOR THIS

SYSTEM.=

今天GFS 90+強度預報明顯比昨天下修了.

如果Fantala能持續到非洲本土..那就罕見了..



預報裡頭.是朝著坦尚尼亞..方向前進.  一般氣旋偶爾會影響到莫三比克.

坦尚尼亞..沒有記載熱帶氣旋侵襲..
OHC 、赤向流出都轉差



坦尚尼亞這國家,一般我們會想到動物頻道的非洲原野節目.
獅子、斑馬、 胡狼、 鬣狗、 羚、大象...以及刺塊樹、非洲高峰-吉力馬札羅