法國氣象局事後大幅提升強度（45節、992百帕），升格成為無名的中等熱帶風暴。



http://www.meteofrance.re/cyclon ... s/dirre/07-20152016

劉瑞益@FB 發表於 2016-3-29 15:15
MFR 編號熱帶低壓07 "07-20152016"

不看好發展。

1. WTIO30 FMEE 290702 CCA
   
2. ***************CORRECTIVE**************
   
3. 
   
4. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
5. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
6. 
   
7. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/7/20152016
   
8. 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
   
9. 
   
10. 2.A POSITION 2016/03/29 AT 0600 UTC:
    
11. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 78.4 E
    
12. (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
    
13. MOVEMENT : SOUTH 12 KT
    
14. 
    
15. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
    
16. 
    
17. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
    
18. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
    
19. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
    
20. 
    
21. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
22. 28 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
    
23. 34 KT NE: 60 SE: SW: NW: 60
    
24. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 100 KM
    
25. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
    
26. 
    
27. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
28. 12H: 2016/03/29 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    
29. 24H: 2016/03/30 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
    
30. 36H: 2016/03/30 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
    
31. 
    
32. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
33. 
    
34. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    
35. T=CI=2.5.
    
36. 
    
37. THE RSACT DATA OF 01H04Z SHOWS WINDS ABOUT 25/30KT OUT OF DEEP CONVECTION, CONFIRMED BY THE ASCAT WINDS OF 04H25Z WITH A CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OF 30KT WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE MONSOON FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
    
38. 
    
39. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RAPIDLY SOUTHWARDS A HAED OF THE TROUGH. THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ( 9K AT 00Z ACCORDING TO CIMMS DATA) IS FORECASTED TO STRENGTHEN, BUT ITS IMPACT ON THE SYSTEM MAY BE LIMITATED IN A FIRST TIME DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SOUTHWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS HOWEVER FORECAST TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY, AND GOES ON SOUTHWARDS BEFORE TO MERGE WITH THE TROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

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突然就Medium再TCFA了……底層確實發展起來了。

1. WTXS21 PGTW 281430
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
   
4. RMKS/
   
5. 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
   
6. 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5S 76.1E TO 22.5S 80.1E WITHIN
   
7. THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
   
8. NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
   
9. ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281400Z
   
10. INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 76.7E. THE
    
11. SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
    
12. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
    
13. 76.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 76.7E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM SOUTH-
    
14. SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
    
15. DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
    
16. WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
    
17. CENTER. A 281101Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM,
    
18. APPROXIMATELY 120NM DIAMETER, WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
    
19. BANDING. A 280445Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
    
20. NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
    
21. ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO
    
22. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE LLCC, DYNAMIC MODELS ARE POORLY INITIALIZING
    
23. THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD
    
24. BETWEEN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH AND A POLEWARD-ORIENTED
    
25. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
    
26. 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
    
27. 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
    
28. CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
    
29. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    
30. 291430Z.//
    
31. NNNN

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