90P就是之前16P登陸約克角撤編後，部分殘餘雲系重新整併而成的。沒想到當時GFS還傻傻認為16P會在卡灣打轉，CMC卻早就預測他將會直驅紐西蘭附近，現在看來幾乎就要成真了。倒是EC當時預測出海後的重新增強完全沒發生，因為90P路徑明顯偏高緯，飽受風切影響發展受限。




說真的老J把它升Medium實是多餘之舉，因為90P顯然已經勾搭上槽線。目前正快速朝高緯度移動，一步步走向轉化與消散...

JTWC於02Z升為MEDIUM

ABPW10 PGTW 210230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/210230Z-210600ZMAR2016//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9S
161.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3S 166.4E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION. A
202157Z PARTIAL METOP-B ASCAT PASS INDICATES 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH INCREASING
EASTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND SUPPORTIVE ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-28C).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. BASED ON
THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

整合中




西南側被乾空氣包圍