Meow

形態有所改善，對流較以往緊密。JTWC應該很快就會發佈TCFA，IMD也可能在今天升格低壓。

GFS預測以較弱強度進入亞丁灣。本身進入亞丁灣的風暴就很少，這樣真正深入的，歷史上只有一次。

甜心

:o雖然因為環境有利於它而開始快速發展起來了對它而言是個好現象，但路徑是乎有往西調整這對後期可能受到它侵襲的阿拉伯半島的居民們卻是個壞消息。

它過去一天的發展還算穩定強度未來要達到熱帶風暴等級應該不成問題。

t02436

補充昨天晚上Low評級

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N 64.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. ANIMATED EIR
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 250445Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN
EXPOSED, POORLY-ORGANIZED LLCC. A 250539Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT
AND 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS OFFSET BY
STRONG EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND
BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC WITH A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
FORECAST AFTER TAU 36 AS VWS DECREASES POLEWARD OF 10N. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

剛剛再調升評級至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 64.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 66.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1080 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 260519Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN AN IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG
WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD WITH
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

目前數值看好發展

甜心

:o位在阿拉伯半島以東.北印度海域的這隻秋末擾動是乎很冷門沒甚麼人在討論它，不過傢伙條件很不錯耶如果發展順利說不定後期會有令人驚豔的成績喔。

暫時緩慢東移後期動向有待觀察。