t02436

JTWC發TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N
145.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WHILE A
DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED TO THE SOUTH. A 262240Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE LLCC IS POORLY DEFINED
WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE (29 TO
30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

JMA同步升格TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 09N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.

t02436

you

他附近的幅合及幅散變強，使他更容易對流爆發&整合，對流越來越強，他的雲帶開始集中，而風圈也開始集中，不過風切很強，乾空氣範圍很大，仍是有些憂慮他的發展，由於他日益漲大，又沒有虛肥的問題出現，所以他的發展開始受到注視。

t02436

加報升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N
144.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-ORGANIZING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261158Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 261159Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10-15 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WIND BARBS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

you

他的強對流覆蓋着他的中心,情況不再糟糕,並得以改善。

you

甜心

今天從雲圖上看起來99w低氣壓中心結構方面有比較好轉一些，不過由於外圍雲系減弱消散掉很多使它目前還是很虛弱可以說是處於瀕死狀態雲層整體結構還是很差一直消消漲漲的。

路徑方面今天已經轉偏西北方向在進行有北轉一些些了，至於未來怎麼走就得看副高跟它北方的鋒面低壓對它產生的間接影響了。

you

99w對流爆發,加以幅合,不知道會否待續~
他採取了偏東的路徑,減少了後期西折的可能性。