簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2021-5-28 12:24
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JTWC 03Z 90W 評級 Medium，短期內向西移動
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 156.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 154.3E, APPROXIMATELY 174
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES THAT WRAP INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A 272330Z
ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SURROUNDED
BY 15-20 KTS WINDS AND STRONGER 20-25 KTS WINDS DISPLACED
APPROXIMATELY 60-120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL POSITION. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF
INVEST INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS PROVIDING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO. DESPITE THIS DIVERGENCE IN
INTENSITY SOLUTIONS, ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. 
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