(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.7N
131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC
TURNING, WITH EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND MULTIPLE WEAK SPINNERS.
A 310356Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LIMITED, FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. UPPER AIR DATA FROM
PALAU INDICATES VIGOROUS (20-25 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE
GRADIENT LEVEL, ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH
ECMWF
AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) IN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS WHILE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE SHOWING TD DEVELOPMENT IN 2-3
DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
提升卡
千斤頂
