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91W JMA:TD

簽到天數: 3110 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2021-9-27 14:13 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號               :91 W
擾動編號日期 :2021 09 27 13
撤編日期        :2021 00
00 00
91W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb-20.8N-152.3E

20210927.0530.himawari-8.vis.91W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.20.8N.152.3E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
周子堯@FB + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2021-9-27 23:20 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA:TD
20210927140901_0_Z__C_010000_20210927120000_MET_CHT_JCIspas_JCP600x581_JRcolor_T.png
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簽到天數: 971 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2021-9-28 09:45 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC: MEDIUM abpwsair.jpg
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.3N 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY 677 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 272107Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 272143Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS HIGHER WINDS IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE ELONGATED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT 91W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT DISAGREE REGARDING INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM SHOWING INTENSIFICATION BUT ECMWF AND JMA REMAINING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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簽到天數: 3110 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2021-9-30 14:24 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC降評至Low
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.3N 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 155.2E, APPROXIMATELY
787 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING, ALBEIT DIMINISHING, CONVECTION SHEARED 150+
NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED, WEAK, N-S ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH MEDIUM EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) BEING
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
91W IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
abpwsair.jpg
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簽到天數: 3110 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2021-10-1 14:16 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC撤評
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.9N 155.2E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
abpwsair.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2021-10-3 11:12 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA撤TD
20211003024430_0_Z__C_010000_20211003000000_MET_CHT_JCIasas_JCP600x512_JRcolor_T.png
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