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22S.Marian 曾短暫增強至澳式C4 逐漸南下減弱

簽到天數: 389 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2021-2-23 16:44 | 顯示全部樓層
  四級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:15 U ( 22 S )
名稱:Marian
rb0-lalo.gif
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2021 02 23 16
JTWC升格日期:2021 02 26 08
命名日期  :2021 02 26 14
撤編日期  :2021 03 08 14
登陸地點  :


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
澳洲氣象局 (BoM):90 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):100 kt ( TY )
海平面最低氣壓   :950 百帕

  擾動編號資料  

98S.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-13.6S-122.5E a34f8618367adab4bf9386099cd4b31c8601e494.jpg
以上資料來自:BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 1337 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-2-23 17:58 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM編號15U,並看好其發展
At 2pm WST 23 February a weak tropical low (15U) was located near 13.3S 120.9E, about 540 kilometres north northwest of Broome. It is expected to track to the west and gradually develop, and by Friday there is a high chance of it reach tropical cyclone intensity.

It will move to the south of Christmas Island during Friday, and although it is unlikely to produce gales at the Island, it will result in an freshening of the northwesterly monsoonal flow, and an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. It should then continue to develop over the weekend, well the the northwest of mainland WA.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Moderate
Friday:High
20210223.0930.himawari-8.ir.98S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.13.6S.122.5E.100pc.jpg 98S_gefs_latest (3).png 20210223.0839.f18.91pct91h91v.98S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.13.6S.122.5E.095pc.jpg

點評

不過這緣份有點讓人尷尬就是(哭笑不得表情)  發表於 2021-2-23 18:16
最近都同分鐘發,看來這已經不是巧合了,是咱真的有緣份  發表於 2021-2-23 18:12
dom
又一起了  發表於 2021-2-23 18:02
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-2-23 17:58 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-2-23 20:47 編輯

數值也看好其發展,GFS新報巔峰954百帕,12Z定強20KT
98S INVEST 210223 1200 13.8S 121.4E SHEM 20 1004
98S_tracks_latest.png sio.png wgmsshr.GIF gfs_mslp_pcpn_io_21.png



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老農民版夜神月|2021-2-24 02:39 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC可能是定位錯誤了,ASCAT風場明明算是有掃中,但從掃描上居然完全看不出有什麼
LATEST.jpg LATEST01.jpg
20210223.1810.himawari-8.ir.98S.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.13.8S.121.4E.100pc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-2-24 06:34 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC提前出了00Z的報文,看來是為了修正定位
98S INVEST 210224 0000 13.7S 116.3E SHEM 20 1002

20210223.2200.himawari-8.ir.98S.INVEST.20kts.1002mb.13.7S.116.3E.100pc.jpg 20210223.2200.himawari-8.ircolor.98S.INVEST.20kts.1002mb.13.7S.116.3E.100pc.jpg
98S_gefs_latest.png

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老農民版夜神月|2021-2-24 07:14 | 顯示全部樓層
修改定位後,JTWC2300Z直接評級Medium
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.7S 116.3E, APPROXIMATELY 526 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 231900Z GMI
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C)
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE INVEST 98S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY QUICKLY OVER
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg 20210223.2240.himawari-8.ir.98S.INVEST.20kts.1002mb.13.7S.116.3E.100pc.jpg
20210223.2100.f16.91pct91h91v.98S.INVEST.20kts.1002mb.13.7S.116.3E.045pc.jpg 98S_tracks_latest.png
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dom|2021-2-24 12:04 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC00Z升格TD
98S INVEST 210224 0000 12.8S 115.0E SHEM 25 1002

TXXS27 KNES 240029
TCSSIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98S)

B. 23/2330Z

C. 13.4S

D. 114.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 5/10
BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT ARE 1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN LLCC LOCATION AND BECAUSE THE BANDING WAS NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK
IMG_2953.JPG

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老農民版夜神月|2021-2-25 05:12 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM:Friday,Saturday:High
At 2pm WST 24 February a weak tropical low (15U) was located near 13.0S 112.8E, about 960 kilometres north northwest of Karratha. It is expected to track to the west and gradually develop, and by Friday there is a high chance of it reach tropical cyclone intensity.

It will move to the south of Christmas Island during Thursday, and although it is unlikely to produce gales at the Island, it will result in an freshening of the northwesterly monsoonal flow, and an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity.

On Saturday it should pass to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. A period of gale force winds are possible on Saturday if it passes close enough to the Islands.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:
Low
Friday:
High
Saturday:
High
20210224.1940.himawari-8.ir.98S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.12.5S.108.8E.100pc.jpg 20210224.1940.gpm.89pct89h89v.98S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.12.5S.108.8E.065pc.jpg
98S_gefs_latest.png


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