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12W 短暫發展 轉為溫氣

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2020-9-10 12:27 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2020-9-14 08:02 編輯

  熱帶低壓  
編號:12 W
名稱:



基本資料  
升格熱低日期2020 09 10 08
擾動編號日期:2020 09 10 12
撤編日期  :2020 09 13 06
撤除熱低日期2020 09 13 08



  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):25 kts ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓1006 百帕



  擾動編號資料  
97W.INVEST.15kts-1007mb-24N-142E

20091009.png LCC_IR1_CR_2750-2020-09-10-12-00.jpg

以上資料來自:JMAJTWC颱風論壇整理製作





評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2020-9-10 12:39 | 顯示全部樓層
基本資料  
編號    :97 W
擾動編號日期:2020 09 10 12
撤編日期  :2020 09 00 00
97W.INVEST.15kts-1007mb-24N-142E
20200909.1910.f15.37h.97W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.24N.142E.035pc.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-10 14:17 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
25.2N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED,
FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A TIMELY ASCAT-A 092347Z PASS DEPICTS LIGHT
WINDS (10-15 KTS) NEAR THE POSITION OF THE LLCC WITH STRONGER (20-
25 KTS) WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 120 NM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
FURTHERMORE, THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS THE ELONGATED, ILL
DEFINED NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ITSELF. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION WITH VERY WARM (30-
31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT OFFSET ONLY SLIGHTLY BY MILD TO MODERATE (10-15) KTS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair (17).jpg 20200910.0540.himawari-8.vis.97W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.25.1N.142.4E.100pc.jpg
20200910.0550.himawari-8.irbd.97W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.25.1N.142.4E.100pc.jpg 97W_gefs_latest.png
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[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-9-10 21:48 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Heigo 於 2020-9-10 22:31 編輯

JTWC評級Medium
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 25.1N 142.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 142.1E, APPROXIMATELY
85 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION
SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A 092347Z
ASCAT-A PASS DEPICTS LIGHT WINDS (10-15 KTS) NEAR THE POSITION OF
THE LLCC WITH STRONGER (20-25 KTS) WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 120 NM TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA ALSO REVEALS THE
ELONGATED, ILL DEFINED NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ITSELF.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION WITH
VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET ONLY SLIGHTLY BY MILD TO MODERATE
(10-15) KTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

cfb8f01f3a292df5ae4f414fab315c6035a873b6.jpg
himawari8_97W_band13_202009101155.png
gfs_97W_4panel_2020091006_f000.png
398ff2d3572c11df77175379742762d0f603c279.jpg
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簽到天數: 2561 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2020-9-10 23:19 | 顯示全部樓層
15Z馬上發布TCFA
wp9720.gif

97W_b13rbtop.png
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簽到天數: 2722 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2020-9-11 21:20 | 顯示全部樓層
119062379_4902711186409516_540144991710178253_o.jpg


日本南方的小傢伙-97W
 
日本氣象廳已評定為熱帶低壓,
未來24小時有小幅增強的趨勢,
在太平洋高氣壓導引下,
明天就會接近日本東部,週日通過,
將為日本關東地區帶來大雨及間歇強風。
 
也因為發展環境稍差,且即將接近陸地,
要有更進一步發展機會偏低,
是否成為颱風?
未來24小時就是他最後機會啦!

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簽到天數: 1137 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-12 02:03 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA發布Warning
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 28.9N 139.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.

20091121.png 20200911.1650.gpm.89pct89h89v.97W.INVEST.20kts.1008mb.29.2N.139.2E.060pc.jpg
未命名.png 20200911.1650.gpm.89hbt.97W.INVEST.20kts.1008mb.29.2N.139.2E.060pc.jpg
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簽到天數: 1137 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-9-12 04:37 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-9-12 04:42 編輯

JTWC升格12W.首報預測30KT封頂,暫不看好能成為TS
wp122020.20200911202121.gif 12W_b13.png
12W_b13ca.png 12W_b13rbtop.png
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