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2006 米克拉 CWB率先升格 今年首個陸警 海峽北上登陸福建

簽到天數: 1202 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2020-8-8 13:31 | 顯示全部樓層
  輕度颱風  
編號:2006 ( 07 W )
名稱:米克拉 ( Mekkhala )
2006.png

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期  :2020 08 08 13
JMA升格TD日期 : 2020 08 09 08
CWB升格TD日期 : 2020 08 09 20
CWB升格TS日期 : 2020 08 10 10
JMA命名日期  :2020 08 10 11
停編日期    :2020 08 11 20
登陸地點    :中國 福建省 漳浦縣
颱風警報總計  :海上警報 11
         陸上警報 11

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):23 m/s ( 9 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :23 m/s ( 45 kt )
中國氣象局 (CMA):33 m/s ( TY )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):70 kts ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓992 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑  :120 公里
十級風半徑  :---- 公里

  過去路徑圖   -來源:維基百科


  擾動編號資料  
95W.INVEST.15kts-1004mb-15.0N-118.0E

20200807.1931.f15.37h.95W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.15N.118E.040pc.jpg
133504lbzo778php9lk66s.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、CMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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笑死,搶了3個廢物,結果最重要的沒搶到。  發表於 2020-8-8 13:53

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-8-8 14:42 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.0N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK, BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BUILDING CONVECTION ON THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE. A 080112Z ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED, BROAD
CIRCUALTION WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MEDIUM (15 TO
25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
95W MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg
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[LV.5]常住居民I

天篷大元帥|2020-8-8 18:50 | 顯示全部樓層
tropicaltidbits網站模擬大致趨向中華民國自由地區
通過後會在黃海GG

95W模擬

95W模擬
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[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-8-9 10:29 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA TD
20080909.png

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
周子堯@FB + 15 TD

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-8-9 14:19 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-8-9 14:24 編輯

JTWC提升評級為Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 118.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY
170 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED, BUT CONSOLIDATING, BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BANDING CONVECTION ON THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE. A 090207Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED, BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 25 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 95W IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MEDIUM (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING 95W MOVING NORTHWARD WITH SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg 95W_gefs_latest.png
121726jys2vrq5l8vfq2xv.jpg


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2020-8-9 15:24 | 顯示全部樓層
116879678_4735026123178024_4915463823695259382_o.jpg


【即將變天!南海低壓明天抵達】
薔密颱風快速北上,對台灣幾乎沒有影響,
東部、北部海域留意長浪即可。
 
我們須特別注意南海低壓95W,
今天開始逐步北上,
明天(10)就會抵達台灣西南海域,
週二(11)來到台灣上空。
 
雖然強度發展有限,頂多熱帶低壓
但當95W靠近時,
也會將西南風強風軸拉到台灣上空。
 
【天氣時序】
週一(10)上半天
南部、恆春半島陸續下雨,
其他地區留意午後大雨或雷雨。
週一(10)夜晚至週二(11)
低壓影響最大的時刻,
全台灣都有下雨機會,
中部、南部、台東大雨或雷雨,
其他地區短暫雷陣雨,
沿海地區有強陣風。
週三(12)
西南風影響,各地仍有下雨機會,
午後容易大雨或雷雨。
週四(13)
太平洋高壓增強,北、中、東放晴,
南部地區短暫雨後放晴。


參考資料|RAMMBECJMACWB
發布時間|2020-08-09 12:47

點評

這波有機會給南部水庫一定的進帳,希望水庫有補到,災害不要到來  發表於 2020-8-9 16:01
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2020-8-9 16:32 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發佈TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 118.0E TO 20.6N 119.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 118.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 118.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY
170 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED, BUT CONSOLIDATING, BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BANDING CONVECTION ON THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE. A 090207Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED, BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH 25 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 95W IS
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MEDIUM (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING 95W MOVING NORTHWARD WITH SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100830Z.//
NNNN
wp9520.gif


95W_090900sair.jpg

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[LV.5]常住居民I

Heigo|2020-8-9 16:32 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Heigo 於 2020-8-9 16:46 編輯

JTWC TCFA
wp9520.gif
abpwsair (2).jpg
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