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03E.Boris

簽到天數: 1742 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2020-6-23 09:45 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號    :03 E
擾動編號日期:2020 06 23 08
撤編日期  :2020 06 00 00
93E.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.10N.102W

20200623.0030.goes-17.ircolor.93E.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.10N.102W.100pc.jpg

  NHC:0%  
3. An area of disturbed weather is forecast to form south of the coast
of Mexico in a day or two.  Some development is expected after
that time, and the system could become a tropical depression by late
this week as the disturbance moves west-northwestward parallel to
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

two_pac_5d3.png

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 1052 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-6-24 11:51 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC於24/0330Z發布TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 240330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 131.0W TO 11.9N 136.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040321Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0N 131.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.0N 131.3W, APPROXIMATELY 1491NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 260111Z SSMIS F-
18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 93E. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VWS (< 15KTS)
AND FAIR POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250330Z.
//
NNNN
ep9320.gif 93E_240330sair.jpg
93E_gefs_latest.png goes17_ir_93E_202006240115.gif
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簽到天數: 1052 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-6-25 00:45 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC24/15Z升格其為03E,初報上望45節,系統後期或進入中太平洋
WTPZ43 KNHC 241457
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032020
500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

The small low pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has acquired enough organized
convection near and southwest of the center to be designated a
tropical depression.  Thus, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression 3-E.  The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in
agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 275/6.  A deep-layer ridge to the north of the
cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to the
northwest and west.  This evolution should cause the depression to
move northwestward between 24-72 h.  After that, the cyclone should
be weakening with the low-level trade winds becoming the main
steering mechanism, resulting in a west-southwestward motion for the
balance of the forecast period.  The official track forecast is near
the various consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or
so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical
storm during that time.  Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind
shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening
trend, and most of the global models forecast dissipation near
120 h. The forecast peak intensity of 45 kt is near the upper end
of the intensity guidance, with the remainder of the forecast near
the intensity consensus.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 10.2N 132.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 10.5N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 11.0N 135.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 11.7N 136.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  26/1200Z 12.6N 137.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  27/0000Z 13.2N 138.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  27/1200Z 13.5N 139.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  28/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 12.5N 148.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

EP032020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png ep0320.gif
GOES16102020176cpJ7jI.jpg goes17_vis-swir_03E_202006241355.gif
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簽到天數: 2506 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2020-6-26 09:42 | 顯示全部樓層
21Z命名Boris,不看好發展,預期36小時之內將以TD強度進入中太。
682
WTPZ43 KNHC 252052
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032020
1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020

Convection has increased further in association with the tropical
cyclone, with the center now under a poorly-organized band or dense
overcast.  A just-received ASCAT-A overpass indicates that 35-kt
winds are occurring over an area about 40 n mi from the center in
the southeastern semicircle and based on this, the depression is
upgraded to Tropical Storm Boris.

While conditions appear to be favorable for some additional
strengthening for the next 12 h or so, none of the intensity
guidance forecasts significant intensification during that time.  
Thus, the intensity forecast holds the intensity at 35 kt through 12
h.  After that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air
entrainment should cause Boris to weaken, leading to the system
degenerating to a remnant low by 60 h and dissipating completely
after 72 h.  The new intensity forecast has been adjusted downward,
but it still is a little above the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/8.  This motion
should continue for the next 24 h or so as Boris moves along the
south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  After that, a turn toward
the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone weakens and
the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering mechanism.  
The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous
forecast, and it again lies the near consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 11.2N 137.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  26/0600Z 11.5N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  26/1800Z 11.9N 139.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  27/0600Z 12.2N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  27/1800Z 12.3N 141.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
60H  28/0600Z 12.2N 143.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  28/1800Z 12.0N 145.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

205341_5day_cone_with_line.png

GOES01202020178iys3rs.jpg
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簽到天數: 1052 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-6-27 01:55 | 顯示全部樓層
減弱為TD,即將跨洋區進入中太平洋,預測將在48H內成為殘餘低氣壓
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 261442
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032020
500 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020

Boris is showing signs of being affected by vertical wind shear,
with the strongest convection now being displaced a little to the
northeast of the center.  The initial intensity remains 30 kt as a
blend of subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB and the CIMSS
satellite consensus.  A combination of shear, dry mid-level air, and
marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow
weakening trend, with the cyclone now forecast to degenerate to a
remnant low by 48 h and dissipate completely after 72 h.  The new
intensity forecast lies near the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/7.  Boris should
move west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small
cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After
that time, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn westward, then
west-southwestward with some increase in forward speed in the
low-level trade wind flow.  The new official track forecast has
only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 12.0N 139.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  27/0000Z 12.2N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  27/1200Z 12.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
36H  28/0000Z 12.5N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
48H  28/1200Z 12.4N 144.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  29/0000Z 12.1N 146.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  29/1200Z 11.5N 148.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
two_pac_0d0.png 20200626.1720.goes-17.vis.2km.03E.BORIS.30kts.1006mb.11.8N.138.7W.pc.jpg
144350_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png GOES17302020178LZl15j.jpg
20200626.1455.noaa19.89rgb.03E.BORIS.30kts.1006mb.11.8N.138.7W.080pc.jpg

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Good  發表於 2020-6-28 14:26
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