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24S.Irondro 巔峰期短暫 旋即逐漸減弱轉化

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2020-3-31 08:48 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2020-4-7 18:43 編輯

  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:11-20192020 ( 24 S )
名稱:Irondro

20200404.0600.msg1.x.vis2km.24SIRONDRO.90kts-962mb-208S-768E.100pc.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2020 03 31 03
JTWC升格日期:2020 04 02 14
命名日期  :2020 04 02 14
撤編日期  :2020 04 07 14
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速:
法國留尼旺氣象局 ( MFR ): 95 kts
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC): 95 kts (Cat.2)
海平面最低氣壓:  945  百帕


  過去路徑圖  
SWI_20192020 (1).png

  擾動編號資料  
91S.INVEST.15kts-1007mb-14.1S-69.7E
20200330.1930.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.91SINVEST.15kts-1007mb-141S-697E.100pc.jpg


以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作





評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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jrchang5|2020-3-31 08:58 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 31/0030Z評級Low。
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.1S 69.7E, APPROXIMATELY 436 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 302055Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
A POCKET OF CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 91S IS CURRENTLY
IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH SOME EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT 91S WILL START TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg
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霧峰追風者|2020-3-31 21:29 | 顯示全部樓層
ABIO10 PGTW 311200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/311200ZMAR2020-311800ZAPR2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.1S 69.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 69.2E, APPROXIMATELY 380
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND TO THE NORTH. A 310909Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD
THE LLC AND TO THE NORTH. A 310434Z METOP-A ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS
TROUGHING AND 10-15 KT WINDS. 91S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, EXPERIENCING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY HIGH
(35-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD BEFORE MAKING A
SOUTHWARD TURN INTO MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGIN TO
INTENSIFY, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN
abpwsair (1).jpg
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jrchang5|2020-4-1 10:55 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 01/03Z發布TCFA。
WTXS21 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 69.8E TO 14.8S 73.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3S 70.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 69.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 70.1E, APPROXIMATELY 325
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 312315Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. 91S IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
WESTWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020300Z.//
NNNN
sh9120.gif 20200401.0130.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.91SINVEST.20kts-1005mb-133S-701E.100pc.jpg 91S_gefs_latest.png
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霧峰追風者|2020-4-1 21:35 | 顯示全部樓層
WTIO31 FMEE 011234
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/11/20192020
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 11
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 01/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.6 S / 69.0 E
(ONZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 5 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 02/04/2020 00 UTC: 12.0 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
24H: 02/04/2020 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 03/04/2020 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
48H: 03/04/2020 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
60H: 04/04/2020 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
72H: 04/04/2020 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/04/2020 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
120H: 06/04/2020 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=1.5
DEPUIS PLUSIEURS JOURS, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST RENFORCEE AU SEIN DU
THALWEG DE MOUSSON GRACE NOTAMMENT A UNE ALIMENTATION EQUATORIALE
PLUS MARQUEE. DEPUIS 24H, UNE CIRCULATION S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT ISOLE
AU SEIN DU THALWEG DE SURFACE. ELLE RESTE CEPENDANT ENCORE ASSEZ
ALLONGEE COMME LE MONTRE LES FAUCHEES PARTIELLES SCATSAT ET ASCAT DE
CE MATIN AINSI QUE LES QUELQUES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS DE 2316Z ET
1152Z). LE SYSTEME EST EGALEMENT SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT
D'EST (ESTIME A 15KT PAR LE CIMSS) MAIS BENEFICIE D'UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE AU NORD ET AU SUD.
AU COURS DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DEVRAIT SE
RENFORCER A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE ET FAVORISER ORGANISATION DE LA
CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE
DEVRAIT ETRE EGALEMENT UN FACTEUR FAVORABLE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H.
LE STADE DE TEMPETE DEVRAIT DONC ETRE ATTEINT DEMAIN EN FIN DE JOURNEE
OU AU COURS DE LA NUIT SUIVANTE. PAR LA SUITE, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEVRAIT ETRE TRES FAVORABLE A UNE INTENSIFICATION
SOUTENUE VOIRE RAPIDE AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE IMPORTANT ET LE
MAINTIEN COTE POLAIRE D'UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE. LE SYSTEME 11
POURRAIT APPROCHER VOIRE ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE INTENSE
SAMEDI. POUR LA SUITE, L'ENVIRONNEMENT DEVRAIT NETTEMENT SE DEGRADER
AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT
D'UN PROFOND THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AINSI QU'UNE BAISSE DU CONTENU
OCEANIQUE SOUS JACENT AU SUD DE 20S. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE EST
ALORS ATTENDU ASSOCIE AU DEBUT DE LA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.
EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME 11 EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE
DORSALE EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUE DANS SON QUADRANT
NORD-EST QUI FAVORISE UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTE VERS LE SUD-EST. A PARTIR
DE CE WEEK-END, SON DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT ETRE ORIENTE PAR LE PROFOND
THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT MAINTENIR
LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT
PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD SUR LE CAP DE LA TRAJECTOIRE, LA VITESSE QUANT A
ELLE RESTE PLUS INCERTAINE.
L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE NECESSITE PAS L'ENVOI DE BULLETINS
REGULIERS.
SWI_20192020.png
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老農民版夜神月|2020-4-2 15:04 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR02/06Z升格中度熱帶風暴,91S獲名Irondro
FKIO20 FMEE 020607
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200402/0607Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: IRONDRO
ADVISORY NR: 2020/01
OBS PSN: 02/0600Z S1231 E06949
CB: WI 400NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL540
MOV: SSE 05KT
C: 998HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 02/1200Z S1315 E07027
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 02/1800Z S1404 E07116
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 03/0000Z S1501 E07223
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 03/0600Z S1603 E07338
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 65KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200402/1200Z=
SWI_20192020.png 20200402.0600.msg-1.vis.91S.INVEST.35kts.996mb.13.1S.69.5E.100pc.jpg
20200402.0506.metopb.89h.91S.INVEST.30kts.1000mb.11.7S.68.4E.090pc.jpg 20200402.0506.metopb.89rgb.91S.INVEST.30kts.1000mb.11.7S.68.4E.090pc.jpg
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jrchang5|2020-4-2 16:38 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2020-4-2 16:54 編輯

JTWC亦判定02/06Z升格為Tropical Cyclone 24S,巔峰暫上看75kts。
24S IRONDRO
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 02, 2020:

Location: 13.1°S 69.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011251ZAPR2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z --- NEAR 13.1S 69.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 69.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 14.8S 71.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 16.6S 72.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 18.4S 74.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 20.3S 77.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 23.6S 82.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 26.6S 88.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 69.9E.
02APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
401 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 020506Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 020507Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE
IMAGE INDICATES EXPANSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES WITH A PATCH OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTH
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL 34-KNOT WIND RADII ARE
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
ASCAT INDICATED SOME HIGHER WINDS TO THE NORTH, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE WIND
FIELD AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.0-T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS). TC 24S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 24S SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 75 KNOTS AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 60, TC
24S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH A
SHARP INCREASE IN VWS (30+ KNOTS), WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID
WEAKENING WHILE THE SYSTEM COMMENCES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). AFTER TAU 72, TC 24S WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW, NEAR THE JET, WITH VWS INCREASING TO 30-40 KNOTS AND
SST VALUES COOLING TO LESS THAN 26C. TC 24S WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHRACTERISTICS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 011300).//
NNNN

sh2420.gif 24S_020600sair.jpg
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周子堯@FB|2020-4-3 11:45 | 顯示全部樓層

FMR 00Z預測巔峰上看70kts,03Z風速提升至50kts,開始捲眼
WTIO31 FMEE 030012
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/11/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IRONDRO)
2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 03/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 72.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SO: 0 NO: 430
34 KT NE: 210 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 210
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 03/04/2020 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
24H: 04/04/2020 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
36H: 04/04/2020 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 05/04/2020 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
60H: 05/04/2020 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
72H: 06/04/2020 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
SWI_20192020.png
20200403.0300.msg-1.vis.24S.IRONDRO.50kts.991mb.16.4S.72.9E.100pc.jpg
20200403.0212.f17.91pct91h91v.24S.IRONDRO.50kts.991mb.16.4S.72.9E.045pc.jpg
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