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20S.Ferdinand 風眼短暫開啟達C2

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2020-2-21 15:15 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-2-29 16:38 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :90 S
擾動編號日期:2020 02 21 14
撤編日期  :2020 02 00 00
90S INVEST 200221 0600 12.7S 118.1E SHEM 15 1008

20200221.0640.himawari-8.vis.90S.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.12.7S.118.1E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
周子堯@FB + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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老農民版夜神月|2020-2-23 09:02 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-2-23 09:11 編輯

JTWC22/2200Z評級Low
ABIO10 PGTW 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/222200Z-231800ZFEB2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.8S 119.1E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
221841Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A DEVELOPING, WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ACCOMPANIED BY FLARING CONVECTION. 99P IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (31 TO 32
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
90S WILL VERY SLOWLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING
SLIGHTLY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS LOW.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg 20200223.0040.himawari-8.vis.90S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.12.8S.119.1E.100pc.jpg
20200222.2103.noaa19.89rgb.90S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.12.8S.119.1E.075pc.jpg
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jrchang5|2020-2-23 12:03 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2020-2-23 12:20 編輯

BoM已升格為熱帶低壓並編號08U,看好未來發展。
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0219 UTC 23/02/2020
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 118.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [256 deg]
Speed of Movement: 1 knots [2 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [80 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS STT0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  23/0600: 12.8S 118.9E:     040 [080]:  030  [055]: 1002
+12:  23/1200: 12.9S 118.8E:     055 [100]:  030  [055]: 1001
+18:  23/1800: 13.2S 118.7E:     065 [125]:  030  [055]: 1000
+24:  24/0000: 13.4S 118.4E:     080 [145]:  035  [065]: 1000
+36:  24/1200: 13.9S 117.9E:     100 [185]:  040  [075]:  996
+48:  25/0000: 14.1S 117.6E:     120 [220]:  055  [100]:  986
+60:  25/1200: 14.1S 116.8E:     140 [255]:  060  [110]:  983
+72:  26/0000: 14.1S 115.9E:     155 [290]:  070  [130]:  976
+96:  27/0000: 14.5S 114.6E:     200 [370]:  060  [110]:  983
+120: 28/0000: 14.7S 113.8E:     290 [535]:  040  [075]:  996
REMARKS:
Tropical low 08U has shown signs of development over the past 12 hours, with
convection consolidating closer to LLCC.

Location has been determined by microwave and visual imagery.

System has been analysed with a CI/FT of 1.5, and combined with recent
scatterometer passes the max winds are estimated to be 25 knots [10 min].

The environmental conditions in the short term are favourable for development.
SSTs are above 30C, and TPW  shows the system in a pocket of moisture though
there is peripheral dry air. Shear is low [less than 20kts] in the vicinity of
the system and an upper trough to the west is enabling good outflow.

Due to it's small size, rapid intensification is possible if it remains pouched
in low shear and sheltered from dry air. Forecast track has intensification to
Wednesday, then an expected weakening trend due to the effects of increasing
shear, dry air as moves west, and the potential interaction with 07U.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.

IDW60280.png rgb_lalo-animated.gif
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老農民版夜神月|2020-2-23 14:22 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-2-23 14:36 編輯

JTWC23/0530Z提升評級至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 119.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY
390 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230151Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A TIGHTENING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE WEST. A 230151Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT, SYMMETRIC LLC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
LYING UNDER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. 90S IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S
WILL BE QUASISTATIONARY WHILE INTENFYING BEFORE BEGINNING TO TRACK
SLOWLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg 20200223.0600.himawari-8.vis.90S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.12.3S.118.9E.100pc.jpg
LATEST.jpg
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周子堯@FB|2020-2-23 18:48 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 10z發佈TCFA
WTXS21 PGTW 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230322ZFEB20//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1S 119.5E TO 14.0S 116.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4S 119.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 118.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 119.1E, APPROXIMATELY
380 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230818Z SSMIS F-16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A TIGHTENING, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING
TO WRAP IN FROM THE WEST. A 230151Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS A
TIGHT, SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS LYING UNDER THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. 90S IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL
TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
sh9020.gif
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jrchang5|2020-2-24 09:17 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 23/18Z升格為Tropical Cyclone 20S。
BoM則判定24/00Z升格為澳式C1,命名Ferdinand。預測巔峰上望澳式C3。
WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230951ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 118.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 118.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 14.0S 118.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 14.4S 117.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 14.7S 117.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 14.7S 116.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 15.0S 115.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 15.2S 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 15.2S 113.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 118.6E.
23FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
337 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST AND THE EAST. A 231757Z ATMS 88 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM AND SUPPORTS THE POSITIONING OF TC 20S. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS HEDGED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0-2.5 (30-35 KTS) BY PGTW, APRF, AND
KNES BASED ON THE RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, TC 20S HAS A GOOD MOISTURE
SIGNATURE, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST IS SERVING AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC 20S. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, TC 20S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS A SMALL SYSTEM, THERE IS A HIGH POSSIBILITY
FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THIS HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
70 KTS BY TAU 48. AFTER THAT, DECREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 (SPREAD OF 40 NM), BUT BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AFTER THAT WITH AN INCREASING SOLUTION SPREAD IN THE LATER
FORECAST PERIOD. NOTABLY, THE NAVGEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A TRACK TO
THE NORTH OF THE MAJORITY AFTER TAU 12. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THUS, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY JTWC FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 231000Z).//
NNNN
sh2020.gif

IDW23100
40:2:2:24:14S118E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0057UTC 24 FEBRUARY 2020

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal eight south (13.8S)
longitude one hundred and seventeen decimal eight east (117.8E)
Recent movement : southwest at 6 knots
Maximum winds   : 40 knots
Central pressure: 995 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 0000 UTC 25
February.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC 24 February
with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 24 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 14.2 south 117.4 east
                        Central pressure 992 hPa.
                        Winds to 45 knots.
At 0000 UTC 25 February: Within 80 nautical miles of 14.6 south 117.0 east
                        Central pressure 981 hPa.
                        Winds to 60 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 24 February 2020.

WEATHER PERTH
IDW60280.png rgb_lalo-animated.gif rb_lalo-animated.gif
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jrchang5|2020-2-25 09:58 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM 25/00Z升格為澳式C3,定強65kts,仍有持續增強的趨勢。
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0107 UTC 25/02/2020
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.3S
Longitude: 117.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [198 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm [95 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  25/0600: 15.6S 117.1E:     030 [060]:  065  [120]:  975
+12:  25/1200: 15.7S 116.8E:     045 [080]:  070  [130]:  971
+18:  25/1800: 15.8S 116.4E:     055 [105]:  075  [140]:  967
+24:  26/0000: 15.9S 116.0E:     070 [130]:  085  [155]:  959
+36:  26/1200: 16.2S 115.3E:     090 [165]:  075  [140]:  967
+48:  27/0000: 16.4S 114.7E:     110 [200]:  055  [100]:  983
+60:  27/1200: 16.7S 114.3E:     130 [235]:  040  [075]:  992
+72:  28/0000: 16.8S 113.7E:     145 [270]:  030  [055]:  998
+96:  29/0000: 16.3S 112.3E:     190 [355]:  025  [045]: 1001
+120: 01/0000: 15.4S 110.3E:     280 [515]:  025  [045]: 1001
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand was located by EIR and recent MW imagery, well
to the north of the Australian mainland.

An eye started to emerge on EIR from around 1800 UTC but has fluctuated in
appearance. Microwave imagery showed a pin hole eye with deep convection not
quite wrapping fully around the centre.

Dvorak: Eye pattern with DTs ranging from 4.0 to 5.0. TIme averaged DT is 4.5.
Trend is D+ with MET/PAT of 4.0. CIMSS ADT had a CI of 4.3 and NOAA ADT was 3.8.
SATCON had 70 knots [adj 10min] at 2252 UTC. Intensity set to 65 knots [10 min
averaged winds].

The environmental conditions for the next 24 to 30 hours are favourable for
development. SSTs are around 30C,  there is abundant moisture at low to mid
levels although there is peripheral dry air. Shear is low to moderate about
10-15 knots [E/NE] and there is strong upper level outflow evident in satellite
imagery and CIMSS upper level winds.

Model guidance is consistent with the development of a very small system and due
to being small, rapid intensification is a strong possibility especially in the
diurnally favourable overnight periods [as has occurred most recently]. The
forecast track has intensification to Wednesday, then an expected weakening
trend from later on Wednesday due to increasing shear, the effects of dry air
and the potential interaction with 07U [moving west across the NT/Kimberley].
Ferdinand is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity late Thursday
or Friday.

The weak mid-level ridge to the southeast is expected to steer the system slowly
towards the west southwest over open waters over the next few days. The ridge is
expected to persist as a broad cut-off mid-latitude low and upper trough remain
near stationary off the west coast of WA.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW60280.png rgb_lalo-animated.gif rbtop_lalo-animated.gif
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老農民版夜神月|2020-2-25 10:28 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-2-25 17:04 編輯

JTWC25/00Z判定升格C1,同樣定強65節,預測24H後上望90節
sh2020.gif
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 117.0E.
25FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
453 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A
RAGGED PINHOLE EYE AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DEEPENED AND BECAME
MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE AND LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN THE 242202Z CORIOLIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW.
ANALYSES INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (29-
30C). TC 20S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL BUILD AND FORM AN EXTENSION
THAT WILL DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 90KTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-SURFACE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 120, TC FERDINAND WILL BE REDUCED TO 35KTS AND
DISSIPATING. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, THEY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH NAVGEM THE EXTREME EAST
OUTLIER, AN INDICATION OF EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH A
SECONDARY CYCLONE, 19P, PROJECTED TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA
AROUND TAU 72, EXIT INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN AND APPROACH TC 20S WITHIN
600NM. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

20200225.0120.himawari-8.vis.20S.FERDINAND.65kts.986mb.15.3S.117.1E.100pc.jpg 20200224.2251.f17.composite.20S.FERDINAND.60kts.990mb.15.1S.117.2E.085pc.jpg
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