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17P.Vicky 實測獲得命名 短暫發展

簽到天數: 596 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2020-2-20 08:03 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2020-2-21 16:39 編輯

  一級熱帶氣旋  

編號:09 F ( 17 P )
名稱:Vicky

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:20
20 02 20 07
JTWC升格日期:2020 02
21 07
撤編日期  :20
20 00 00 00
登陸地點  薩摩亞 薩圖帕依泰阿區
       薩摩亞 阿納區
  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
斐濟氣象局 (FMS) :  45 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC): 45 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓    :988 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  


97P.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-13-174.6W
20200219.2320.himawari8.x.vis2km.97PINVEST.15kts-130S-1746W.100pc.jpg


以上資料來自:FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作







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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 596 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2020-2-20 12:27 | 顯示全部樓層
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 200139 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 174.5W
AT 200000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER THE LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS
TRYING TO WRAP ONTO THE LLCC. OGANISATION HAS IMPROVED. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIVERGENT AREA IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
INITIALLY AND SOUTHWARDS THEREAFTER WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 14.3S 172.3W MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 15.7S 170.8W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC 17.2S 170.3W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 220000 UTC 18.6S 169.7W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 200800 UTC.
65660.gif


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霧峰追風者|2020-2-20 12:32 | 顯示全部樓層
WTPS21 PGTW 200400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 174.6W TO 15.8S 171.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S 174.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.1S 174.2W, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL
200145Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, GOOD EASTWARD DIFFLUENCE, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. INVEST 97P IS EMBEDDED IN A PERSISTENT BAND OF
TROUGHING WITH STRONGER (25-30 KNOTS) WINDS DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 97P WILL
MARGINALLY STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE AS IT CONTINUES ON A SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210400Z.
//
NNNN
sh9720.gif 20200220.0350.himawari8.x.vis2km.97PINVEST.25kts-1004mb-132S-1744W.100pc.jpg


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老農民版夜神月|2020-2-21 06:43 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-2-21 21:55 編輯

FMS20/2316Z判定升格澳式C1,命名Vicky
JTWC20/1800Z升格TC17P,定強45KT,20/2300Z發出首報
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 202316 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VICKY CATEGORY 1 CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.5S 171.1W AT 202230 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8
IR/VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER THE LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS
WRAPPING ONTO THE LLCC. OGANISATION IMPROVED. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER DIVERGENT AREA IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE
IT SOUTHEASTWARDS INITIALLY AND SOUTHWARDS THEREAFTER WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.0.
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 211030 UTC 16.2S 170.2W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 212230 UTC 17.3S 169.7W MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 221030 UTC 18.0S 169.4W MOV SSE AT 07 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 222230 UTC 18.6S 169.1W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VICKY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 210200 UTC.

073608g56umv1167x7up59.gif

17P SEVENTEEN 200220 1800 14.3S 171.5W SHEM 45 997
WTPS31 PGTW 202300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200351ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 171.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 171.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 16.0S 170.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 17.6S 170.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 18.6S 170.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 19.3S 171.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 171.2W.
20FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
47 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS A LATE CYCLE 201800Z WARNING BEING ISSUED
AT 202300Z. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES A COMPACT CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE SPCZ HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.  
SCATTEROMETRY DATA AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHED WESTERN SAMOA INDICATED 30
KNOTS, AND OBSERVATIONS AT MAOTA AND FALEOLO AIRPORTS SUPPORTED THIS ESTIMATE.
ADDITIONALLY, DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 18Z RANGED FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25-30 KNOTS).
HOWEVER, A  201937Z OBSERVATION FROM PAGO PAGO FOUND 40 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS.  THE DVORAK ESTIMATE IS LIKELY UNDER-REPRESENTING THE ACTUAL PEAK
INTENSITY DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE. THEREFORE, THE
INTENSITY IS NOW ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS. TC 17P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A
PERSISTENT TROUGH AND IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ESTABLISHED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK AT TAU 12, BECOMING SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 24. AS THE TRACK BEGINS TO TURN
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24, TC 17P WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST, WEAKENING TO 35 KTS BY TAU 36. INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FULL DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A 184 NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 INCREASING TO 295 NM AT
TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, SOME NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT 17P INTERACTING WITH 96P
AFTER TAU 48. THE COMBINATION OF POTENTIAL SYSTEM INTERACTION AND HIGH DEGREE OF
SPREAD YIELDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 202300Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 190400).//
NNNN

075544u4108nu01404dm0n.gif
20200220.2200.himawari-8.vis.17P.SEVENTEEN.45kts.997mb.14.3S.171.5W.100pc.jpg 20200220.1815.f17.ir.olsircomp.97P.INVEST.x.jpg
20200220.2222.goes15.x.ir1km.17PSEVENTEEN.40kts-999mb-143S-1715W.098pc.jpg

點評

對了,不知道你前幾天的低溫競猜特地抄我的答案,成果令你滿意否?  發表於 2020-2-22 18:46
嗯,好喔,真棒,希望您永遠不會有打錯字的時候,呵呵~  發表於 2020-2-22 02:38
不是FMS命名嗎??還是沒把FMS放在眼裡  發表於 2020-2-21 19:10
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