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02S.Belna 登陸馬達加斯加西北部

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2019-11-28 07:06 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-12-10 10:14 編輯

  熱帶氣旋  
編號:02-20192020 ( 02 S )
名稱:Belna

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 11 28 02
JTWC升格日期:2019 12 05 02
命名日期  :2019 12 06 02
撤編日期  :2019 12 00 00
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速:
法國留尼旺氣象局 ( MFR ):85 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):100 kts ( Cat.3 )
海平面最低氣壓:959 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
91S.INVEST.15kts-7.0S-55.0E

20191127.1800.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.91SINVEST.15kts-70S-550E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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jrchang5|2019-11-28 16:39 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-11-28 16:43 編輯

JTWC 28/0330Z評級Low。
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7N
55E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM SOUTH OF MAHE, SEYCHELLES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 272207Z 91GHZ AMSR2
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, RAGGED, AND PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET SOUTHWESTWARD OF
THE LLC. ANALYSES INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (5-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MARGINAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MAY REACH
WARNING CRITERIA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AS IT GENERALLY TRACKS
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg 20191128.0730.msg1.x.vis1km_high.91SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-80S-547E.100pc (1).jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2019-12-3 22:22 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR編號不穩定天氣區第2號,首報上望55KT
WTIO30 FMEE 031305
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/2/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 2
2.A POSITION 2019/12/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.8 S / 53.4 E
(SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/04 00 UTC: 6.9 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED
WEATHER
24H: 2019/12/04 12 UTC: 6.9 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2019/12/05 00 UTC: 7.0 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/12/05 12 UTC: 7.4 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2019/12/06 00 UTC: 8.2 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2019/12/06 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 11.2 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER MONITORED SINCE SEVERAL DAYS REMAINS
ILL-DEFINED. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED WITHIN THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH WITH A STILL FLUCTUATING AND DISORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW (THAT HOWEVER COULD BE
IMPEDE BY THE CYCLOGENESIS MORE TO THE EAST), WARM WATERS, MID-LEVEL
MOIST AIR, LOW SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW EQUATORWARDS. A
BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD BUILD TOMORROW
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AFTERWARDS. LATER THIS WEEK-END
A SOUTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT MAY STOP THE DEVELOPMENT TREND.
FOR THE TRACK FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 36/48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD
EAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDE TO THE
SOUTH. THIS SHOULD FAVOR A MERIONAL TRACK. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
ONGOING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST, THERE IS GREATER THAN
USUAL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK FORECAST. AN EVOLUTION OVER THE
NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS STILL POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
INHABITANTS OF THE NORTHERN PART OF MADAGASCAR, COMOROS, MAYOTTE
AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN OUTER ISLANDS OF SEYCHELLES(FARQUHAR) SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT ALLOW THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.

SWI_20192020.png 25270.jpg
25271.jpg

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jrchang5|2019-12-5 05:39 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-12-5 05:46 編輯

JTWC判定04/18Z升格為Tropical Cyclone 02S。
WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 6.8S 51.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.8S 51.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 7.1S 50.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 7.6S 49.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 8.3S 48.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 9.1S 47.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 11.1S 47.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 13.5S 46.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 16.9S 45.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 6.9S 51.2E.
04DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 853 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE ELONGATED (NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST) LLCC EVIDENT
ON A 041830Z ASCAT-C PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 02S
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MINIMAL
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. A
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE INITIAL
STEERING MECHANISM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG ITS
NORTHERN PERIPHERY THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36 TC 02S TURNS POLEWARD
AND TAKES MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY TO A MAXIMUM OF 70 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AFTER WHICH TIME
DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK THERE IS A BROAD SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS, 200 NM AT TAU 48. THE UK MET ENSEMBLE IS THE FAR WEST
OUTLIER TRACKING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS
THE FAR EAST OUTLIER TRACKING INTO CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. DUE TO THE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS CURRENTLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
03S (THREE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

sh0220.gif 02S_041800sair.jpg

MFR則判定此系統仍為熱帶擾動第2號。
ZCZC 348
WTIO30 FMEE 041850 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/2/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2
2.A POSITION 2019/12/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.7 S / 52.3 E
(SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/05 06 UTC: 6.8 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/05 18 UTC: 7.3 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/06 06 UTC: 8.1 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/06 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 10.3 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/12/09 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0-
NNNN

SWI_20192020.png
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老農民版夜神月|2019-12-6 02:39 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-12-6 02:46 編輯

MFR18Z判定升格為中度熱帶風暴,命名Belna
FKIO20 FMEE 051802

TC ADVISORY

DTG: 20191205/1802Z

TCAC: REUNION

TC: BELNA

ADVISORY NR: 2019/01

OBS PSN: 05/1800Z S0710 E05000

CB: WI 70NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL530

MOV: W 06KT

C: 998HPA

MAX WIND: 40KT

FCST PSN +6 HR: 06/0000Z S0717 E04943

FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 40KT

FCST PSN +12 HR: 06/0600Z S0731 E04919

FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 40KT

FCST PSN +18 HR: 06/1200Z S0757 E04846

FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 43KT

FCST PSN +24 HR: 06/1800Z S0827 E04812

FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 45KT

RMK: NIL

NXT MSG: 20191206/0000Z=

SWI_20192020.png 2020SH02_4KMIRIMG_201912051800.gif
2020SH02_4KMSRBDC_201912051800.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2019-12-6 17:17 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-12-7 16:22 編輯

JTWC06Z判定Belna升格為C1,定強65節,並預測未來36到48小時內將持續增強至90節
WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNING NR 004   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z --- NEAR 7.9S 48.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S 48.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 8.7S 47.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 9.7S 47.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 10.9S 46.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 12.3S 46.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 14.8S 45.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 18.3S 44.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 22.3S 45.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 8.1S 48.5E.
06DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BELNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 847
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP, RAPIDLY CYCLING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 060547Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE AND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN A 060548Z ASCAT-B IMAGE. AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65KTS IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0
(65KTS) AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-B DATA. OVER THE PAST TWELVE
HOURS, TC 02S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM
IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (10-15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ROUND THE STR TO
THE EAST AND TRACK POLEWARD WHERE IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE
TO WARM SST AND LOW VWS THROUGH TAU 48, AND ACHIEVE A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 90KTS AT THIS TIME. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD,
THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR, SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 72, WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH LAND. THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD (520NM) IN NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS BY TAU 96. IN PARTICULAR, ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN THE
FORECAST TRACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH NO
LANDFALL BY TAU 120. THIS DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS DUE TO
THE TIMING OF A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER SOUTH AFRICA THAT IS
INTERACTING WITH THE STEERING OF THE SYSTEM. THE IMPLICATIONS OF
THIS SPREAD SUGGEST THAT THE STORM MAY RETAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME IF LANDFALL IS NOT ACHIEVED BY TAU 96. THIS
WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

sh0220.gif 02S_060600sair.jpg

MFR則認定其已為強烈熱帶風暴,定強60KT.預測顛峰時間於48H~72H後,將達ITC,95KT
WTIO30 FMEE 060654
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/2/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BELNA)
2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 48.8 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 70 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 11.9 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/12/10 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2019/12/11 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN WARMED UP. A WARM SPOT
APPEARED BUT DOES NOT SEEM TO MATCH WITH THE CENTER ON THE 0241Z
WINDSAT. PRELIMINARY ASCAT DATA TEND TO SUPPORT A SOUTHERLY CENTER. A
TEMPORARY EYE APPEARED IN THE LATE NIGHT SSMIS DATA BEFORE
DETERIORATING. LAST ASCAT DATA SUPPORT AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. INTENSITY IS UPGRADED TO 60KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVES ANALYSIS.
IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE SYSTEM START BENDING SOUTH-WESTWARD
WITH THE BUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHILE A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE SOUTH. THESE
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE INTENSIFICATION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A
SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE UNCERTAIN FOR
THE 2 DAY FORECAST IS STILL IMPORTANT (AROUND 150/200KM) AMONG THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. EUROPEAN MODEL IS ISOLATED ON A WESTERN TRACK
WHILE OVER MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARD A TRACK 100KM EAST OF
MAYOTTE. THE MODEL MAY SUFFER FROM A BAD INITIAL INTENSITY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO GFS. AT LONG RANGE IT IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH A PROBABLE LANDFALL ON THE MALAGASY COAST BUT STILL
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST PRECISELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL THEN
RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOURS. WARM WATERS, EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND THE DECAY OF THE MODERATE SOUTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR ARE LIKELY TO HELP BELNA REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS. AT LONG RANGE, UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTESITY FORECAST IS
IMPORTANT DUE TO POTENTIAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND THE LIKELY
LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR.
INHABITANTS OF THE OUTER ISLANDS OF SEYCHELLES(FARQUHAR, ALDABRA),
EAST OF COMOROS, MAYOTTE THEN OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SWI_20192020.png 20191206.0830.msg1.x.vis1km_high.02SBELNA.65kts-989mb-79S-487E.100pc.jpg
20191206.0830.msg1.x.ir1km.02SBELNA.65kts-989mb-79S-487E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-12-7 14:59 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR 06Z升TC
SWI_20192020.png

20191207.0313.f17.x.colorpct_91h_91v_1deg.02SBELNA.75kts-981mb-90S-480E.095pc.jpg

JTWC 速報評價85節。
02S BELNA 191207 0600 9.6S 47.4E SHEM 85 974

2020SH02_4KMIRIMG_201912070530.gif
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-12-8 01:36 | 顯示全部樓層
底層良好,高層風眼亦開出,JTWC12Z判定已達C3
02S BELNA 191207 1200 10.3S 47.4E SHEM 100 959
TPXS10 PGTW 071539

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA)

B. 07/1500Z

C. 10.63S

D. 47.19E

E. THREE/MET8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET YIELDS A
5.0 AND PT YIELDS A 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   BERMEA
20191207.1600.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.02SBELNA.100kts-959mb-103S-474E.100pc.jpg 20191207.1600.msg1.ir.BD.02SBELNA.100kts-959mb.jpg
20191207.1600.msg1.x.ir1km.02SBELNA.100kts-959mb-103S-474E.100pc.jpg 20191207.1551.f17.x.91h_1deg.02SBELNA.100kts-959mb-103S-474E.077pc.jpg
20191207.1551.f17.x.colorpct_91h_91v_1deg.02SBELNA.100kts-959mb-103S-474E.077pc.jpg
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