開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

1928 北冕 環境惡劣 減弱消散

簽到天數: 844 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2019-11-21 08:07 | 顯示全部樓層
  中度颱風  
編號:1928 ( 29 W )
名稱:北冕 ( Kammuri )

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 11 21 06
升格熱低日期:2019 11 24 04
命名日期  :2019 11 26 08
停編日期  :2019 12 05 23
登陸地點  :菲律賓 索索貢省 古巴特市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):45 m/s ( 14 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :45 m/s ( 90 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):115 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓940 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑  :200 公里
十級風半徑  :080 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
94W INVEST 191120 1800 7.4N 176.5E WPAC 15 0

20191120.2120.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.94WINVEST.15kts-74N-1765E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 844 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-23 08:03 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC22/2000Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) IS LOCATED NEAR 4.2N
169.6E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. A 220724Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, A 220950Z ASCAT-B PASS SUPPORTS
THE LOCATION OF THIS BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH
(20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 94W WILL
INITIALLY BE ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTH DUE TO A
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST. GFS AND NAVGEM DEPICT WINDS FULLY WRAPPING AROUND
THE CIRCULATION BY  TAU 120.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair1123.jpg 23740.jpg
goes17_ir_94W_201911222155.jpg


回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 622 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

jrchang5|2019-11-24 16:44 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC已提升評級至Medium。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.0N 168.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 419
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MINIMAL
CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 240240Z AMSR2 89/36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A POTENTIALLY ORGANIZING MID-LEVEL STRUCTURE. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSETTING LOW
(1O TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING,
POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING CRITERIA IN SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg rgb_lalo-animated.gif
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 844 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-24 17:22 | 顯示全部樓層
EC,GFS00Z新報均看好此系統強度發展
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_wpac_fh0-240.gif gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_40.png
未命名10.png

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2323 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-11-24 23:32 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 12Z升TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 08N 160E WNW SLOWLY.

19112421.png

94W_gefs_latest.png

rb-animated.gif

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 622 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

jrchang5|2019-11-25 17:00 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-11-25 17:14 編輯

JTWC 25/09Z發布TCFA。
WTPN21 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 156.7E TO 12.5N 144.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7N 154.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 154.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE AND LITTLE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. A 250323Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A LARGELY DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. 94W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING, WITH THE LLC TIGHTENING AND REACHING WARNING CRITERIA
WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN
ENHANCED WIND FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE BEFORE THE CIRCULATION FULLY
DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260900Z.//
NNNN

wp9419.gif abpwsair.jpg 20191125.0510.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.94WINVEST.20kts-1004mb-83N-1577E.100pc.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 844 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-25 21:13 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA25/12Z發布GW
熱帯低気圧
令和元年11月25日22時05分 発表
<25日21時の実況>
大きさ-
強さ-
熱帯低気圧
存在地域トラック諸島近海
中心位置北緯 9度10分(9.2度)
東経 153度30分(153.5度)
進行方向、速さ西 35km/h(18kt)
中心気圧1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速23m/s(45kt)
<26日09時の予報>
強さ-
熱帯低気圧
存在地域マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心北緯 10度10分(10.2度)
東経 149度25分(149.4度)
進行方向、速さ西 35km/h(20kt)
中心気圧1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径140km(75NM)
<26日21時の予報>
強さ-
存在地域マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心北緯 11度30分(11.5度)
東経 145度35分(145.6度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 35km/h(20kt)
中心気圧1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径190km(100NM)

a-0025.png #!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-真實色影像全.jpg
#!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-94W-AVN-C154202937.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 844 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-25 21:53 | 顯示全部樓層
CWB升格TD34
第 34 號熱帶性低氣壓
》現況
2019年11月25日20時
      中心位置 北緯 9.50 度 東經 153.50 度
      過去移動方向   -
      過去移動時速   -
      中心氣壓   1004 百帕
      近中心最大風速 15 公尺/秒
      瞬間之最大陣風 23 公尺/秒

》預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為
     西北西 時速 34 公里
     預測 11月26日08時
     中心在 北緯 10.40 度 東經 149.90 度
     中心氣壓   1000 百帕
     近中心最大風速 15 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 23 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑--公里
     70%機率半徑 120 公里
預測 12-24 小時平均移向移速為
     西北西 時速 34 公里
     預測 11月26日20時
     中心在 北緯 11.40 度 東經 146.30 度
     中心氣壓   998 百帕
     近中心最大風速 18 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 25 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑100公里
     70%機率半徑 150 公里
預測 24 小時有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢

Download_PTA_201911251200_zhtw.png 94W_gefs0_latest.png
94W_tracks_latest.png 9d0a10385343fbf2b8c7635dbf7eca8064388fbf.jpg
回復

使用道具 舉報

1234下一頁
快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表