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23S.Wallace 逐漸西行減弱

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2019-4-2 18:55 | 顯示全部樓層
   三級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:21 U ( 23 S )
名稱:Wallace

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 04 02 18
JTWC升格日期:2019 04 05 08
命名日期  :2019 04 06 02
撤編日期  :
2019 04 14 20
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
澳洲氣象局 (BoM):65 kt ( Cat.3 )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):65 kt ( Cat. 1 )
海平面最低氣壓   :974 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
97S.INVEST.15kts-9.0S-134.0E

20190402.0950.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.97SINVEST.15kts-90S-1340E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

點評

我是要將平板充電前最後隨便一滑無意間發現的,發現得應比您晚,只是運氣好。  發表於 2019-4-3 00:10
厲害{豎拇指]這隻我用手機關注一整個白天,家事一直忙到傍晚剛好六點快半才開電腦,刷大概10分鐘97S就跑出來,還以為是我的天命擾,想說慢慢來就好XD  發表於 2019-4-2 22:10

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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霧峰追風者|2019-4-2 22:26 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM 預計本周末開始發展。
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:06 pm WST on Tuesday 2 April 2019
for the period until midnight WST Friday 5 April 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low is forming over waters north of the Northern Territory. It is forecast to start moving west southwest on Thursday, taking it over waters north of the Kimberley from Friday and north of the Pilbara next week. The tropical low has a Low risk of developing into a tropical cyclone on Friday, but since it is likely to still be east of 125E, the rating remains Very Low. The risk of this system being a tropical cyclone in the region increases to Moderate over the weekend.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Very Low



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老農民版夜神月|2019-4-2 22:48 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-4-2 22:52 編輯

JTWC修正,調整定強,並認為97S在0200Z時便已是20節的擾動
顯示NRL這次0210Z左右才編擾可能有些過於緩慢

SH, 97, 2019040200,   , BEST,   0,  86S, 1350E,  20, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 97, 2019040206,   , BEST,   0,  88S, 1345E,  20, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 97, 2019040212,   , BEST,   0,  90S, 1339E,  20, 1005, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

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霧峰追風者|2019-4-3 07:07 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 17Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S
133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 276 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021236Z MHS METOP-
A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 97S BORDERING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (28-30
CELSIUS) IN THE NORTHERN TIMOR SEA SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST, IT WILL ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE VWS
AND EVEN WARMER SSTS (30-32 DEGREES CELSIUS), ASSISTING IN
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH THEN SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST, GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH
OVER THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair (2).jpg

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jrchang5|2019-4-3 14:07 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-4-3 14:12 編輯

JTWC 03/04Z提升評級至Medium。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0S 133.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 296
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030053Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 030053Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KNOT
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS 97S BORDERING AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE NORTHERN TIMOR SEA
SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT 97S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, GRADUALLY
INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg 20190403.0530.himawari-8.vis.97S.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.8.1S.133.1E.100pc.jpg 97S_gefs_latest.png esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.loop.97S.2019.2019040212.gif


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老農民版夜神月|2019-4-3 15:21 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM編號21U,預測三天後(週六)成為TC的機率為高
21U
Tropical Low (21U) has formed and was located near 7.8S 132.0E at 2pm WST Wednesday, which is about 500 km north northeast of Darwin. It is forecast to move generally west southwest over the next few days. The system has a Moderate risk of developing into a tropical cyclone on Friday, but is only a chance of moving into the region. It has a High risk of being a tropical cyclone from Saturday, when it is more likely to be in the Western Region.

Over the weekend there is a chance the system is close enough to produce a period of gales and heavy rain over the coastal parts of the far northern and northwestern Kimberley. Early next week there is the potential for this system to approach the Pilbara coast.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Very Low
Fridayow
Saturday:High


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jrchang5|2019-4-4 09:16 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-4-4 09:52 編輯

JTWC 04/0130Z發布TCFA。
WTXS21 PGTW 040130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9S 131.2E TO 11.2S 126.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.1S 130.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2S
133.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 160.4E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM NORTH
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH OF A
DEVELOPING NOTCH FEATURE. A 032117Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS DEFINITIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLC
FROM THE SOUTH. 97S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE WHILE INTENSIFYING TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050130Z.//
NNNN
sh9719.gif

BoM判定04/00Z仍為熱帶低壓,有機會於05日升格命名,預測巔峰上望澳式C3。
IDW24100

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 9:25 am WST on Thursday 4 April 2019

Headline:
A developing tropical low may intensify into a tropical cyclone on Friday or Saturday to the north of the Kimberley coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Cockatoo Island to Kalumburu.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 110 kilometres of 9.3 degrees South 131.0 degrees East, estimated to be 240 kilometres north northeast of Pirlangimpi and 730 kilometres northeast of Kalumburu.

Movement: west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

A tropical cyclone may develop during Friday or Saturday north of the Kimberley coast. The system is expected to track towards the west to southwest and is likely to develop further over the weekend. Early next week there is potential for the system to approach the Pilbara coast.

Hazards:
GALES are not expected in coastal areas on Thursday or early Friday. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Kalumburu and Cockatoo Island late Friday or during Saturday.

Recommended Action:
DFES State Emeregency Service (SES) advises tthat there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Cockatoo Island and Kalumburu should listen for the next advice.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Thursday 04 April. Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337). A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)
IDW60280.png 20190404.0040.himawari-8.vis.97S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.9.1S.130.9E.100pc.jpg 20190404.0040.himawari-8.ircolor.97S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.9.1S.130.9E.100pc.jpg


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jrchang5|2019-4-5 09:22 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-4-5 09:39 編輯

JTWC 05/00Z率先升格為Tropical Cyclone 23S。
SH, 23, 2019040218,   , BEST,   0,  78S, 1348E,  20, 1005, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 23, 2019040300,   , BEST,   0,  79S, 1343E,  20, 1005, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  225,  40,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 23, 2019040306,   , BEST,   0,  81S, 1336E,  25, 1003, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1006,  135,  35,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
SH, 23, 2019040312,   , BEST,   0,  89S, 1318E,  25, 1005, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  135,  45,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
SH, 23, 2019040318,   , BEST,   0,  94S, 1310E,  25, 1006, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  130,  40,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
SH, 23, 2019040400,   , BEST,   0,  99S, 1304E,  30, 1000, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  155,  40,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
SH, 23, 2019040406,   , BEST,   0, 105S, 1298E,  30, 1003, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,  180,  35,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
SH, 23, 2019040412,   , BEST,   0, 109S, 1292E,  30, 1005, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  170,  40,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
SH, 23, 2019040418,   , BEST,   0, 112S, 1288E,  30, 1004, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  170,  40,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
SH, 23, 2019040500,   , BEST,   0, 114S, 1284E,  35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ,   35,   75,  150,   65, 1008,  165,  40,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, TRANSITIONED, sh972019 to sh232019,
23S INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 05, 2019:

Location: 11.4°S 128.4°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

20190405.0030.himawari-8.vis.23S.INVEST.35kts.1000mb.11.4S.128.4E.100pc.jpg rgb_lalo-animated.gif rbtop_lalo-animated.gif 97S_gefs_latest.png esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.loop.97S.2019.2019040412.gif



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